Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Adventure

Of 370 developers who shipped an Adventure Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 683 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $810k, ×1298 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 683 games are announced against 207 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 683 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 370
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $4.0k → $4.2k → $1.8k → $4.6k → $1.6k → $1.5k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 370
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,529)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,471)
Top 5% $815k (exactly $814,884)
Developers, 2 yr 370
Released games 1,118
Announced 683
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 137,151 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $810k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 208 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 683 games are announced against 207 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Solasta: Crown of the Magister older $29.99 19,680 87% 590k $18M (exactly $17,706,096) Tactical Adventures
Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition older $19.99 28,146 77% 844k $17M (exactly $16,879,156) Owlcat Games
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
Solasta II · EA $39.99 2,931 75% 88k $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) Tactical Adventures
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
The World of Kungfu: Dragon and Eagle $17.99 4,595 67% 138k $2.5M (exactly $2,479,922) ChillyRoom
Songs of Silence $29.99 2,367 79% 71k $2.1M (exactly $2,129,590) Chimera Entertainment
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.