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Should I ship an Adventure Space Sim?
Space Sim + Adventure
Of 105 developers who shipped an Adventure Space Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 241 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2205 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 241 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $899 (exactly $899) |
| Top 25% | $9.5k (exactly $9,524) |
| Top 5% | $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 105 |
| Released games | 455 |
| Announced | 241 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Space Sim, Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation, Action
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 24,090 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 241 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Space Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + DestructionFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + Tactical RPGFair
- + WarFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + SportsFair
- + DiplomacyLong shot
- + MilitaryPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
Comparable games
No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M 
Starfield 2023 · $173M 
Kerbal Space Program 2015 · $145M 
Oxygen Not Included 2019 · $101M 
Elite Dangerous 2015 · $49M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | No Man's Sky | older | $59.99 | 315,054 83% | 9.5M | $567M (exactly $567,002,684) | Hello Games |
| | Starfield | older | $49.99 | 115,202 58% | 3.5M | $173M (exactly $172,768,439) | Bethesda Game Studios |
| | Kerbal Space Program | older | $39.99 | 120,656 95% | 3.6M | $145M (exactly $144,751,003) | Squad |
| | Oxygen Not Included | older | $24.99 | 135,337 96% | 4.1M | $101M (exactly $101,462,149) | Klei Entertainment |
| | Elite Dangerous | older | $19.99 | 82,399 76% | 2.5M | $49M (exactly $49,414,680) | Frontier Developments |
 | Kerbal Space Program 2 | · EA older | $49.99 | 27,930 26% | 838k | $42M (exactly $41,886,621) | Intercept Games |
 | STAR WARS™: Squadrons | older | $39.99 | 25,086 66% | 753k | $30M (exactly $30,095,674) | MOTIVE |
 | FTL: Faster Than Light | older | $9.99 | 62,763 94% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,810,071) | Subset Games |
 | Cosmoteer: Starship Architect & Commander | · EA older | $19.99 | 12,013 94% | 360k | $7.2M (exactly $7,204,196) | Walternate Realities |
 | Deliver Us The Moon | older | $24.99 | 7,510 87% | 225k | $5.6M (exactly $5,630,247) | KeokeN Interactive |
 | Void Crew | $24.99 | 6,573 86% | 197k | $4.9M (exactly $4,927,778) | Hutlihut Games | |
 | Wildgate | $29.99 | 5,032 77% | 151k | $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) | Moonshot Games | |
 | SpaceCraft | · EA | $29.99 | 2,616 64% | 78k | $2.4M (exactly $2,353,615) | Shiro Games |
 | Astrometica | · EA | $19.99 | 2,912 82% | 87k | $1.7M (exactly $1,746,326) | BeryMery |
 | Astro Colony | $19.99 | 2,397 80% | 72k | $1.4M (exactly $1,437,481) | Terad Games | |
 | Reentry - A Space Flight Simulator | $34.99 | 1,319 97% | 40k | $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) | Lyra Creative | |
 | Approximately Up | $24.99 | 995 93% | 30k | $746k (exactly $745,952) | Approximately Games | |
 | Blossom: The Seed of Life | $16.99 | 1,011 88% | 30k | $515k (exactly $515,307) | Pebbledust Games | |
 | Approaching Infinity | $17.99 | 723 95% | 22k | $390k (exactly $390,203) | IBOL | |
 | Space Trash Scavenger | $19.99 | 512 82% | 15k | $307k (exactly $307,046) | SquarePlay Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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