Do I ship it?

Games › Sniper › Sniper + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Sniper game?

Sniper + Adventure

Only 19 developers shipped an Adventure Sniper game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sniper Elite: Resistance, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $90, ×0.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 32 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 100% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 32 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sniper + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $683 → $2.5k → $3.2k → $624 → $30 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sniper + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $90 (exactly $90)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 5% $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 82
Announced 32
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sniper
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sniper, Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Open World
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Linear, VR
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 4,999 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $90, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $7.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sniper with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Sci-fiFair9 devs · median $600 · 10 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot20 devs · median $300 · 14 announced
  3. + MilitaryPoor odds28 devs · median $3.0k · 38 announced
  4. + TacticalPoor odds22 devs · median $1.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Action-AdventurePoor odds15 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  6. + FPSPoor odds36 devs · median $899 · 57 announced
  7. + CombatPoor odds24 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  8. + Bullet TimePoor odds8 devs · median $899 · 6 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds12 devs · median $779 · 22 announced
  10. + ShooterPoor odds55 devs · median $600 · 84 announced
  11. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds10 devs · median $600 · 11 announced
  12. + ActionPoor odds69 devs · median $598 · 89 announced

All 36 pairs on the Sniper page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sniper Elite 4 2017 · $98M Sniper Elite 5 2022 · $37M Sniper Elite 3 2014 · $19M Zombie Army 4: Dead War 2021 · $15M Sniper Ghost Warrior 3 2017 · $9.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sniper Elite 4 older $59.99 54,258 91% 1.6M $98M (exactly $97,648,123) Rebellion
Sniper Elite 5 older $49.99 24,818 83% 745k $37M (exactly $37,219,555) Rebellion
Sniper Elite 3 older $29.99 21,407 82% 642k $19M (exactly $19,259,878) Rebellion
Zombie Army 4: Dead War older $49.99 10,028 86% 301k $15M (exactly $15,038,992) Rebellion
Sniper Ghost Warrior 3 older $19.99 15,133 67% 454k $9.1M (exactly $9,075,260) CI Games
Sniper Elite: Resistance $49.99 4,825 75% 145k $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052) Rebellion
Sniper: Ghost Warrior 2 older $9.99 13,694 75% 411k $4.1M (exactly $4,104,092) City Interactive
Sniper Elite: Nazi Zombie Army older $14.99 3,557 88% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,583) Rebellion
Sniper: Ghost Warrior older $7.99 5,723 58% 172k $1.4M (exactly $1,371,803) City Interactive
Sniper Elite: Nazi Zombie Army 2 older $14.99 3,020 84% 91k $1.4M (exactly $1,358,094) ·
Pirate Hunter $6.99 80 87% 2.4k $17k (exactly $16,776) DIOsoft
Gun Reflex VR $8.99 42 61% 1.3k $11k (exactly $11,327) OBGames
Pirates: Rogue's Fortune · EA $12.99 10 100% 300 $3.9k (exactly $3,897) NINPO Game Studio
Midwinter Fan Remaster · EA $19.99 2 100% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Titanium Helix Games
ShadowStrikeVR · EA $9.99 3 0% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Charming Game Studio
Virtual Sniper $12.99 2 0% 60 $779 (exactly $779) Revino Games
BouleMan $0.99 21 100% 630 $624 (exactly $624) Haruka Nitaka, Matthew Taylor, Samantha… (Haruka Nitaka, Matthew Taylor, Samantha Anderson, Sussanne Beaujeu, T.Beaujeu, S.DAAS, Tony Tutty)
Hentai Natsuki $0.99 13 84% 390 $386 (exactly $386) Cyber Keks
Kill the horde $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) XF Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.