Do I ship it?

GamesAutomobile SimAutomobile Sim + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Adventure

Of 91 developers who shipped an Adventure Automobile Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 184 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×2425 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 184 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 184 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 91
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $3.3k → $5.8k → $3.8k → $2.1k → $1.5k → $657 (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 91
Bottom 30% $478 (exactly $478)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,515)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692)
Developers, 2 yr 91
Released games 322
Announced 184
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim, Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Driving, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 366,026 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 55 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 184 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
BeamNG.drive · EA older $24.99 388,236 97% 12M $291M (exactly $291,060,529) BeamNG
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition older $19.99 180,637 83% 5.4M $108M (exactly $108,328,009) Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto
American Truck Simulator older $19.99 165,692 97% 5.0M $99M (exactly $99,365,492) SCS Software
The Crew™ 2 older $29.99 86,533 78% 2.6M $78M (exactly $77,853,740) Ivory Tower
My Summer Car $14.99 108,503 94% 3.3M $49M (exactly $48,793,799) Amistech Games
SnowRunner older $29.99 46,343 90% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,694,797) Saber Interactive
Mad Max older $19.99 57,651 91% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,573,305) Avalanche Studios
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Drive Beyond Horizons · EA $24.99 17,903 77% 537k $13M (exactly $13,421,879) Drive Beyond Horizons
Train Sim World® 5 $39.99 3,028 80% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) Dovetail Games
Keep Driving $17.99 6,188 93% 186k $3.3M (exactly $3,339,664) YCJY Games
My Garage $19.99 4,010 90% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,404,797) Viking Game Studio
Fruitbus $24.99 962 86% 29k $721k (exactly $721,211) Krillbite Studio
Caravanners · EA $17.99 712 35% 21k $384k (exactly $384,266) Akif Akdemir
Responding · EA $24.99 409 45% 12k $307k (exactly $306,627) Visionary Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.