Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Adventure

Of 77 developers who shipped an Adventure Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 190 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×3830 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 190 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 190 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 77
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $7.5k → $8.6k → $14k → $2.7k → $718 → $2.8k (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 77
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,652)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $33,267)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,405,397)
Developers, 2 yr 77
Released games 251
Announced 190
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.79

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Farming Sim, Simulation
Price point
$9.79 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.79.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 52,062 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $2.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 190 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DAVE THE DIVER older $19.99 142,662 96% 4.3M $86M (exactly $85,554,401) MINTROCKET
Medieval Dynasty older $34.99 43,074 90% 1.3M $45M (exactly $45,214,778) Render Cube
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
Graveyard Keeper older $19.99 39,547 86% 1.2M $24M (exactly $23,716,336) Lazy Bear Games
Forager older $19.99 35,385 90% 1.1M $21M (exactly $21,220,384) HopFrog
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
HARVESTELLA older $59.99 2,071 77% 62k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,179) Square Enix
Train Sim World® 5 $39.99 3,028 80% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) Dovetail Games
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
I Am Future: Cozy Apocalypse Survival $19.99 4,011 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,397) Mandragora
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Farmer's Dynasty 2 · EA $24.99 1,225 72% 37k $918k (exactly $918,382) UMEO Studios
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games
The Ranchers · EA $24.99 547 57% 16k $410k (exactly $410,086) The Ranchers

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.