Do I ship it?

Games › Survival › Survival + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Survival game?

Survival + 4 Player Local

Of 23 developers who shipped a 4 Player Local Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $330 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 11 developers shipped in the last year and 38 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 38 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $2.1k → $450 → $330 → $0 (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,346)
Top 5% $7.8k (exactly $7,796)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 88
Announced 38
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, 4 Player Local; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Local Co-Op
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 153 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.3k, 1 in 20 over $7.7k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HELLDIVERS™ Dive Harder Edition 2015 · $15M Unrailed! 2020 · $8.3M Distance 2018 · $4.4M How to Survive 2 2016 · $3.9M BADLAND: Game of the Year Edition 2015 · $839k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ Dive Harder Edition older $19.99 25,663 90% 770k $15M (exactly $15,390,101) Arrowhead Game Studios
Unrailed! older $19.99 13,789 93% 414k $8.3M (exactly $8,269,263) Indoor Astronaut
Distance older $24.99 5,832 93% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,372,250) Refract
How to Survive 2 older $14.99 8,641 69% 259k $3.9M (exactly $3,885,858) Eko Software
BADLAND: Game of the Year Edition older $9.99 2,801 86% 84k $839k (exactly $839,460) Frogmind
Yet Another Zombie Defense HD older $3.99 2,561 84% 77k $307k (exactly $306,552) Awesome Games Studio
This Means Warp older $19.99 438 71% 13k $263k (exactly $262,669) Outlier
Nation Red older $2.99 2,208 88% 66k $198k (exactly $198,058) DiezelPower
Shadowgrounds Survivor older $9.99 583 62% 17k $175k (exactly $174,725) Frozenbyte
Evolution Board Game older $14.99 348 81% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) North Star Digital Studios
Forest of Deceit $9.99 35 100% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Ghost Camp
No Heroes Here 2 $19.99 13 61% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Mad Mimic
Paws Against the World $6.99 28 78% 840 $5.9k (exactly $5,872) GoldenGod Games
Anomaly Protocol · EA $4.99 33 72% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) Oriland
Toy Scrappers $4.99 18 77% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) LoudScream
Backrooms Escape Protocol · EA $2.99 15 13% 450 $1.3k (exactly $1,346) Alarm Studio
Exanimate $11.99 3 100% 90 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) CodeCabanaGames
Velocide Overdrive $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) NoxRift Games
All But Weak · EA $3.99 4 100% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Hikyu
Highrisers Couch Co-Op · EA $14.99 1 0% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Solar Powered Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.