Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Shooter?

Shooter + 4 Player Local

Of 64 developers who shipped a 4 Player Local Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 100 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 100 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper, while revenue is down 45% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 100 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 64
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $1.0k → $1.2k → $1.0k → $299 → $359 → $839 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 64
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,348)
Top 5% $11k (exactly $11,089)
Developers, 2 yr 64
Released games 298
Announced 100
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, 4 Player Local; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Local Multiplayer, Local Co-Op
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,656 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.3k, 1 in 20 over $11k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 100 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Broforce older $14.99 49,512 96% 1.5M $22M (exactly $22,265,546) Free Lives
HELLDIVERS™ Dive Harder Edition older $19.99 25,663 90% 770k $15M (exactly $15,390,101) Arrowhead Game Studios
Stick Fight: The Game older $4.99 99,952 93% 3.0M $15M (exactly $14,962,814) Landfall West
Duck Game older $12.99 25,262 97% 758k $9.8M (exactly $9,844,601) Landon Podbielski
Amazing Frog? · EA older $19.99 11,169 94% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,698,049) Fayju
How to Survive 2 older $14.99 8,641 69% 259k $3.9M (exactly $3,885,858) Eko Software
GRIP: Combat Racing older $29.99 3,669 86% 110k $3.3M (exactly $3,300,999) Caged Element
HYPERCHARGE: Unboxed older $24.99 3,798 90% 114k $2.8M (exactly $2,847,361) Digital Cybercherries
Worms Ultimate Mayhem older $14.99 4,303 89% 129k $1.9M (exactly $1,935,059) Team17 Digital Ltd
Guns, Gore and Cannoli 2 older $12.99 4,742 94% 142k $1.8M (exactly $1,847,957) Rogueside, Claeysbrothers
DuneCrawl $19.99 568 74% 17k $341k (exactly $340,630) Alientrap
Bang Bang Barrage $7.99 757 95% 23k $181k (exactly $181,453) Monkey Bread
BattleCap $11.99 159 96% 4.8k $57k (exactly $57,192) MechAlmond Productions
SUPERVERSE $9.99 37 70% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) Superverse Industries
QUADRICOLOR: Ultra Sentai Color Ranger $12.99 27 96% 810 $11k (exactly $10,522) Quadri Team
MAGE: Mega Awesome Gregarious Encounters $9.99 29 89% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) FunRug Studio
Bugscraper $9.99 28 96% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) Yolwoocle, OLX, Verbaudet, Ninesliced
Paws Against the World $6.99 28 78% 840 $5.9k (exactly $5,872) GoldenGod Games
Pulsar Crash $14.99 10 100% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Little Doctor Games
Off the Beaten Track $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Blackroot Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.