Do I ship it?

GamesAutomobile SimAutomobile Sim + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + 4 Player Local

Only 6 developers shipped a 4 Player Local Automobile Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BeaterCore, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $2.1k against a market of $1.5k. 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 10 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Automobile Sim + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $97k (exactly $96,503)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 34
Announced 10
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim, 4 Player Local
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 15,479 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $96k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 10 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DIRT 5 older $59.99 3,530 59% 106k $6.4M (exactly $6,352,941) Codemasters
GRIP: Combat Racing older $29.99 3,669 86% 110k $3.3M (exactly $3,300,999) Caged Element
Circuit Superstars older $19.99 2,218 86% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,330,135) Original Fire Games
New Star™ GP older $9.99 1,143 92% 34k $343k (exactly $342,557) New Star Games Ltd.
BlazeRush older $9.99 1,031 88% 31k $309k (exactly $308,991) Targem Games
Super Indie Karts · EA older $19.99 453 80% 14k $272k (exactly $271,664) One Legged Seagull
Réussir : Code de la Route - Nouvelle Édition (French Highway Code) older $14.99 500 88% 15k $225k (exactly $224,850) Smart Tale Games
Barro Racing older $4.99 1,250 83% 38k $187k (exactly $187,125) SC Jogos
Barro 22 older $4.99 868 89% 26k $130k (exactly $129,940) SC Jogos
Barro GT older $4.99 817 84% 25k $122k (exactly $122,305) SC Jogos
BeaterCore $9.99 322 82% 9.7k $97k (exactly $96,503) Artem Arbatsky
Speed Rivals - Slot Racing $7.99 12 83% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) BabelGames
Daily Driven Racer $9.99 7 100% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) A-Grand HT
Rival Roads Car Racing $1.99 5 40% 150 $298 (exactly $298) HEASD
Fantasy Car : Car Design Simulator 造车模拟器 $1.99 5 100% 150 $298 (exactly $298) Z's Quest Studio
Combat Rally · EA $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Walter Bonacci

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.