Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + 3D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 3D Platformer Shooter?

Shooter + 3D Platformer

Of 222 developers who shipped a 3D Platformer Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 313 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 115 developers shipped in the last year and 313 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 313 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + 3D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 222
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $896 → $897 → $599 → $298 → $359 → $299 → $719 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + 3D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 222
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 5% $219k (exactly $219,004)
Developers, 2 yr 222
Released games 720
Announced 313
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, 3D Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, FPS
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 27,740 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 154 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 313 games are announced against 115 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart older $59.99 11,529 90% 346k $21M (exactly $20,748,741) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Neon White older $24.99 17,259 97% 518k $13M (exactly $12,939,072) Angel Matrix
Supraland older $19.99 12,376 95% 371k $7.4M (exactly $7,421,887) Supra Games
Sunset Overdrive older $19.99 12,082 90% 362k $7.2M (exactly $7,245,575) Insomniac Games, Blind Squirrel Games
Mirror 2: Project X · EA older $1.99 111,251 24% 3.3M $6.6M (exactly $6,641,685) KAGAMI Ⅱ WORKs
In Sound Mind older $34.99 5,467 95% 164k $5.7M (exactly $5,738,710) We Create Stuff
The Front $19.99 9,555 66% 287k $5.7M (exactly $5,730,134) Samar Studio
Saints Row®: The Third™ Remastered older $29.99 3,968 73% 119k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,010) Deep Silver Volition, Sperasoft
Voidling Bound $24.99 3,126 92% 94k $2.3M (exactly $2,343,562) Hatchery Games
Turok older $19.99 3,377 93% 101k $2.0M (exactly $2,025,187) Iguana Entertainment, Nightdive Studios
s&box $9.99 5,118 46% 154k $1.5M (exactly $1,533,865) Facepunch Studios
MOBILE SUIT GUNDAM SEED BATTLE DESTINY REMASTERED $39.99 757 77% 23k $908k (exactly $908,173) Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc.
近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau $9.99 2,780 92% 83k $833k (exactly $833,166) Noto Muteki
Luna Abyss $29.99 923 86% 28k $830k (exactly $830,423) Kwalee Labs
Twisted Tower $14.99 1,827 93% 55k $822k (exactly $821,602) Atmos Games
Onirism $17.99 1,337 82% 40k $722k (exactly $721,579) Crimson Tales
Shady Knight $19.99 898 93% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Alexey 'cptnsigh'
CICADAMATA" $9.99 1,419 96% 43k $425k (exactly $425,274) ✿ flowergarden

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.