Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + 2D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 2D Platformer Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + 2D Platformer

Of 294 developers who shipped a 2D Platformer Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 748 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×7.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×899 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 748 games are announced against 153 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 748 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + 2D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 294
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.8k → $1.3k → $7.6k → $4.5k → $4.6k → $3.0k → $3.8k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + 2D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 294
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,355)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,891)
Top 5% $427k (exactly $427,215)
Developers, 2 yr 294
Released games 895
Announced 748
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
2D Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania, 2D Platformer; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Platformer, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Side Scroller
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 25,444 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 163 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 748 games are announced against 153 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
Blasphemous 2 older $29.99 16,808 91% 504k $15M (exactly $15,122,158) The Game Kitchen
Rogue Legacy 2 older $24.99 14,238 90% 427k $11M (exactly $10,674,229) Cellar Door Games
Have a Nice Death older $24.99 9,729 85% 292k $7.3M (exactly $7,293,831) Magic Design Studios
The Messenger older $19.99 10,711 92% 321k $6.4M (exactly $6,423,387) Sabotage
Prince of Persia The Lost Crown older $29.99 6,754 84% 203k $6.1M (exactly $6,076,574) Ubisoft Montpellier
Afterimage older $24.99 6,929 79% 208k $5.2M (exactly $5,194,671) Aurogon Shanghai
Mark of the Ninja: Remastered older $19.99 6,584 95% 198k $3.9M (exactly $3,948,425) Klei Entertainment
Mega Man 11 older $29.99 4,312 89% 129k $3.9M (exactly $3,879,506) CAPCOM CO., LTD.
Laika: Aged Through Blood older $19.99 5,938 91% 178k $3.6M (exactly $3,561,019) Brainwash Gang
SHINOBI: Art of Vengeance $29.99 3,564 83% 107k $3.2M (exactly $3,206,531) SEGA, Lizardcube
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
Öoo $9.99 6,575 99% 197k $2.0M (exactly $1,970,528) NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuy… (NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuyomi)
NINJA GAIDEN: Ragebound $24.99 2,500 92% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,874,250) The Game Kitchen
Pipistrello and the Cursed Yoyo $19.99 1,993 97% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,195,202) Pocket Trap
Journey of Realm:Dawn Dew $10.99 2,233 97% 67k $736k (exactly $736,220) 葱色兔兔/Scallion Rabbit
AWAKEN - Astral Blade $19.99 1,121 82% 34k $672k (exactly $672,264) Dark Pigeon Games
KYOTO XANADU -the Blooming Phantom- $54.99 403 78% 12k $665k (exactly $664,829) Nihon Falcom
Goblin Vyke: The Thief Tycoon $14.99 1,397 70% 42k $628k (exactly $628,231) Art Thieves
BLADECHIMERA $14.99 1,358 88% 41k $611k (exactly $610,693) Team Ladybug, WSS playground

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.