Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics

Of 2,068 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,435 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×420 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 3,435 games are announced against 1,269 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 3,435 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,068
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $3.0k → $2.2k → $1.9k → $1.8k → $1.3k → $776 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,068
Bottom 30% $208 (exactly $208)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,132)
Top 5% $264k (exactly $263,934)
Developers, 2 yr 2,068
Released games 5,764
Announced 3,435
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 230,226 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $900, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 1,052 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,435 games are announced against 1,269 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Turn-Based Tactics

58 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Turn-Based Tactics + Ninja Poor odds $719 9 devs
  2. Turn-Based Tactics + Thriller Poor odds $683 12 devs
  3. Turn-Based Tactics + Cats Poor odds $629 30 devs
  4. Turn-Based Tactics + Mystery Poor odds $538 57 devs
  5. Turn-Based Tactics + Superhero Poor odds $60 11 devs
  6. Turn-Based Tactics + Science Dead $2.3k 7 devs
  7. Turn-Based Tactics + Dogs Dead $629 11 devs
  8. Turn-Based Tactics + Time Travel Dead $449 9 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M Dragon Age™: The Veilguard 2024 · $74M Metaphor: ReFantazio 2024 · $53M Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition 2013 · $49M XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition older $29.99 54,547 87% 1.6M $49M (exactly $49,075,936) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
Temtem older $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- $59.99 6,893 88% 207k $12M (exactly $12,405,332) Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc.
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.