Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Superhero

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Superhero Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Superhero

Only 11 developers shipped a Superhero Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Nova Hearts, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $60, under ×0.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 12 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper, while revenue is down 100% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 12 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Superhero
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $3.0k → $2.0k
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Superhero: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $60 (exactly $60)
Top 25% $2.0k (exactly $1,978)
Top 5% $50k (exactly $50,375)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 31
Announced 12
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Superhero
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 70% positive over 111 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $60, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $50k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Chroma Squad older $14.99 2,913 95% 87k $1.3M (exactly $1,309,976) Behold Studios
Capes older $39.99 446 67% 13k $535k (exactly $535,066) Spitfire Interactive
Invincible Presents: Atom Eve older $9.99 550 96% 17k $165k (exactly $164,835) Terrible Posture Games
Sentinels of Freedom older $24.99 169 66% 5.1k $127k (exactly $126,699) Underbite Games
Helmetman · EA older $19.99 136 79% 4.1k $82k (exactly $81,559) GoniNmimi Games
Nova Hearts $19.99 84 67% 2.5k $50k (exactly $50,375) Lightbulb Crew
Supercow older $7.99 183 97% 5.5k $44k (exactly $43,865) Nevosoft
ZHP: Unlosing Ranger vs. Darkdeath Evilman older $19.99 55 83% 1.7k $33k (exactly $32,984) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc., Codeglue
FAS: Fight Action Sandbox older $6.99 69 63% 2.1k $14k (exactly $14,469) Vona Soft
Giggle Night: Trixie's Trial · EA $19.99 16 81% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Anaximanes Entertainment
Sentinel Point Heroes · EA $10.99 6 100% 180 $2.0k (exactly $1,978) Jellybane
FULL BET - FIGHTING CASINO - $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) FlatMountain
武道传说 League of Fighters $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) LINWENJIAN
Skully Bunnies · EA $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Chick Meow Studios
Specter: The Battle of the Mind $0.99 2 50% 60 $59 (exactly $59) AlguemBonitinho
City: Battle Ground $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Redduckstudio
破环者 LoopBreaker $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 白哥制作
ALYUP $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) HashMO Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.