Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Traditional Roguelike?

Traditional Roguelike

Of 275 developers who shipped a Traditional Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 350 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $570, ×1.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×218 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 350 games are announced against 202 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 350 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 275
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8k → $599 → $300 → $1.7k → $899 → $719 → $898 (still earning) → $298 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 275
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $570 (exactly $570)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,838)
Top 5% $103k (exactly $103,431)
Developers, 2 yr 275
Released games 505
Announced 350
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Traditional Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 24,906 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $570, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 82 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 350 games are announced against 202 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Traditional Roguelike

7 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Traditional Roguelike + Female Protagonist Fair $2.9k 15 devs
  2. Traditional Roguelike + Sci-fi Fair $1.4k 26 devs
  3. Traditional Roguelike + Fantasy Fair $898 99 devs
  4. Traditional Roguelike + Magic Poor odds $1.3k 37 devs
  5. Traditional Roguelike + Demons Poor odds $1.2k 14 devs
  6. Traditional Roguelike + Medieval Poor odds $899 26 devs
  7. Traditional Roguelike + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $898 40 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Caves of Qud 2024 · $11M Elin 2024 · EA · $5.0M Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- 2018 · $1.8M Low Magic Age 2017 · EA · $1.5M Soulash 2 2023 · EA · $1.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- older $34.99 1,734 93% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,180) AQUASTYLE
Low Magic Age · EA older $14.99 3,342 89% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) Low Magic Studios
Soulash 2 · EA older $18.99 2,382 85% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,357,025) Artur Smiarowski
Jupiter Hell older $24.99 1,795 91% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,345,712) ChaosForge
Tales of Maj'Eyal older $6.99 6,320 94% 190k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,304) Netcore Games
ZED ZONE · EA older $11.99 3,506 81% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,261,108) Leven Liu
Cogmind · EA older $24.99 1,560 95% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,169,532) Grid Sage Games
Path of Achra older $9.99 3,166 98% 95k $949k (exactly $948,850) Ulfsire
Lost in Random: The Eternal Die $24.99 764 84% 23k $573k (exactly $572,771) Stormteller Games
Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island $39.99 470 85% 14k $564k (exactly $563,859) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Rift Wizard 2 $19.99 744 91% 22k $446k (exactly $446,177) Dylan White
Approaching Infinity $17.99 723 95% 22k $390k (exactly $390,203) IBOL
House of Necrosis $11.99 581 94% 17k $209k (exactly $208,986) Warkus
Rift Wizard 3 · EA $19.99 308 88% 9.2k $185k (exactly $184,708) Dylan White, Khoops, Jacob Martinez
Kādomon: Hyper Auto Battlers $9.99 543 65% 16k $163k (exactly $162,737) Dino Rocket
Trials Survivors · EA $9.99 475 85% 14k $142k (exactly $142,358) Angry wisp

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.