Should I ship a Match 3?
Match 3
Of 306 developers who shipped a Match 3 in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 281 more are announced.
Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $120 for a 2 / 10 build. 181 developers shipped in the last year and 281 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $45 (exactly $45) |
|---|---|
| Median | $238 (exactly $238) |
| Top 25% | $1.3k (exactly $1,348) |
| Top 5% | $44k (exactly $43,756) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 306 |
| Released games | 1,677 |
| Announced | 281 |
| Effort | 2 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Match 3
- effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
What it takes
- Effort
- 2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
- Systems
- Match 3
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 8,110 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 199 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 281 games are announced against 181 developers who shipped in the last year.
All pairs with Match 3
- Tactical + Match 3 Dead $150
- Rhythm + Match 3 Dead $120
- Hex Grid + Match 3 Dead $119
- Match 3 + Solitaire Dead $90
- 2D Platformer + Match 3 Dead $30
- Racing + Match 3 Dead $0
- Sports + Match 3 Dead $0
Comparable games
HuniePop 2015 · $7.2M 
Mirror 2: Project X 2022 · EA · $6.6M 
HuniePop 2: Double Date 2021 · $4.9M 
Mirror 2018 · $4.3M 
The Legend of Bum-Bo 2019 · $2.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | HuniePop | older | $9.99 | 23,989 96% | 720k | $7.2M (exactly $7,189,503) | HuniePot |
| | Mirror 2: Project X | · EA older | $1.99 | 111,251 24% | 3.3M | $6.6M (exactly $6,641,685) | KAGAMI Ⅱ WORKs |
| | HuniePop 2: Double Date | older | $19.99 | 8,149 91% | 244k | $4.9M (exactly $4,886,955) | HuniePot |
| | Mirror | older | $1.99 | 72,623 96% | 2.2M | $4.3M (exactly $4,335,593) | KAGAMI WORKS |
| | The Legend of Bum-Bo | older | $14.99 | 5,654 80% | 170k | $2.5M (exactly $2,542,604) | Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Rid… (Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Ridiculon) |
 | POPUCOM | $19.99 | 3,432 87% | 103k | $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170) | Hypergryph | |
 | Lumines Arise | $39.99 | 848 94% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,017,346) | Enhance, Monstars Inc. | |
 | Battle Chef Brigade Deluxe | older | $19.99 | 1,624 95% | 49k | $974k (exactly $973,913) | Trinket Studios |
 | Zuma Deluxe | older | $4.99 | 6,481 95% | 194k | $970k (exactly $970,206) | PopCap Games, Inc. |
 | Bejeweled® 3 | older | $4.99 | 6,096 96% | 183k | $913k (exactly $912,571) | PopCap Games, Inc. |
 | Titanium Court | $14.99 | 1,094 94% | 33k | $492k (exactly $491,972) | AP Thomson | |
 | Puzzle Quest: Immortal Edition | $14.99 | 522 77% | 16k | $235k (exactly $234,743) | Infinity Plus 2 | |
 | Dogpile | $9.99 | 708 95% | 21k | $212k (exactly $212,188) | Studio Folly, Toot Games, Foot | |
 | Creepy Redneck Dinosaur Mansion 3 | $19.99 | 341 96% | 10k | $204k (exactly $204,498) | Strange Scaffold | |
 | Mindcop | $14.99 | 413 94% | 12k | $186k (exactly $185,726) | Andre Gareis | |
 | Spirit Swap: Lofi Beats to Match-3 To | $19.99 | 239 94% | 7.2k | $143k (exactly $143,328) | Soft Not Weak, LLC | |
 | Humans are not that against Lizardwomen 2 | $9.99 | 389 93% | 12k | $117k (exactly $116,583) | Hue Axis Entertainment | |
 | Mythmatch | $19.99 | 124 98% | 3.7k | $74k (exactly $74,363) | Team Artichoke |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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