Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Match 3

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Match 3 Tactical game?

Tactical + Match 3

Only 19 developers shipped a Match 3 Tactical game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Titanium Court, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $180 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 13 developers shipped in the last year and 20 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 20 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Match 3
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $148 → $30 → $2.2k → $9.7k → $2.7k → $0 → $45 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Match 3: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Top 5% $492k (exactly $491,972)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 55
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical, Match 3; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Deckbuilding
Price point
$4.49 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.49.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 1,321 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Titanium Court $14.99 1,094 94% 33k $492k (exactly $491,972) AP Thomson
Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes - Definitive Edition older $17.99 434 80% 13k $234k (exactly $234,230) Dotemu, Capybara Games
Fantasy Match -Make a H match with cute young woman- older $7.99 203 79% 6.1k $49k (exactly $48,659) 魔界あ号営業所
Kaamos: Puzzle Roguelike $9.99 73 87% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Pepperbox Studios
Super Farming Boy · EA $12.99 42 85% 1.3k $16k (exactly $16,367) LemonChili Soft
Crown of Pain older $4.99 83 69% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,425) Jagit Games, Coldwild Games
Dungeon Wizards older $6.99 56 92% 1.7k $12k (exactly $11,743) Tubby Turtle Studios
ChronoBabes $3.99 81 80% 2.4k $9.7k (exactly $9,696) Vinci
MOVERS IN THE WAREHOUSE older $24.99 11 90% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Bocharov Games
Puzzle Forge Dungeon older $9.99 25 68% 750 $7.5k (exactly $7,492) Tuesday Quest
Zooika $4.99 18 100% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Graphic Reality
Idylls of the Lunar Maria $8.99 2 100% 60 $539 (exactly $539) Charlie Batten
Dropt $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Procedural Level
Wizard's Guide $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) RandomDice Studio
Runebound Legends $0.99 6 83% 180 $178 (exactly $178) Zanardo Forge Studios
Harvestlord · EA $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Vert Lime Atelier

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.