Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic game?

Futuristic

Of 1,949 developers who shipped a Futuristic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,590 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $660, ×1.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×432 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 3,590 games are announced against 1,098 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 3,590 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,949
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $1.2k → $1.1k → $1.2k → $987 → $899 → $599 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,949
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $657 (exactly $657)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,940)
Top 5% $205k (exactly $205,149)
Developers, 2 yr 1,949
Released games 6,052
Announced 3,590
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 589,640 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $660, 1 in 4 over $4.9k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 1,100 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,590 games are announced against 1,098 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Futuristic

158 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Bullet Time + Futuristic Dead $239 42 devs
  2. 2D Fighter + Futuristic Dead $180 38 devs
  3. Grid-Based Movement + Futuristic Dead $179 44 devs
  4. Hero Shooter + Futuristic Dead $150 31 devs
  5. Mystery Dungeon + Futuristic Dead $150 18 devs
  6. Runner + Futuristic Dead $120 63 devs
  7. Battle Royale + Futuristic Dead $60 4 devs
  8. Trading Card Game + Futuristic Dead $0 9 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M Call of Duty®: Black Ops III 2015 · $284M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III older $59.99 157,694 88% 4.7M $284M (exactly $283,801,892) Treyarch, Aspyr (Mac)
Detroit: Become Human older $39.99 226,411 96% 6.8M $272M (exactly $271,625,277) Quantic Dream
Titanfall® 2 older $29.99 255,050 95% 7.7M $229M (exactly $229,468,485) Respawn Entertainment
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
Half-Life: Alyx older $59.99 93,001 98% 2.8M $167M (exactly $167,373,900) Valve
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
REMATCH $29.99 39,905 70% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,902,528) Sloclap
Killing Floor 3 $39.99 16,493 46% 495k $20M (exactly $19,786,652) Tripwire Interactive
The Alters $34.99 15,330 90% 460k $16M (exactly $16,091,901) 11 bit studios
Cronos: The New Dawn $59.99 7,753 87% 233k $14M (exactly $13,953,074) Bloober Team
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.