Do I ship it?

Games2D Fighter2D Fighter + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic 2D Fighter?

2D Fighter + Futuristic

Of 38 developers who shipped a Futuristic 2D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 22 developers shipped in the last year and 68 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 68 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Fighter + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $180 → $4.9k → $239 → $899 → $269 → $0 → $180 (still earning) → $30 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Fighter + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $180 (exactly $180)
Top 25% $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 5% $87k (exactly $86,956)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 109
Announced 68
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
2D Fighter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Combat
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 694 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $86k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds8 devs · median $4.0k · 6 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair11 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  3. + Card BattlerFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Auto BattlerFair16 devs · median $719 · 19 announced
  6. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $599 · 18 announced
  7. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  8. + SimulationFair51 devs · median $598 · 55 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $538 · 13 announced
  10. + ManagementFair10 devs · median $449 · 14 announced
  11. + SuperheroLong shot11 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementLong shot13 devs · median $390 · 14 announced

All 129 pairs on the 2D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SpiderHeck older $14.99 3,922 93% 118k $1.8M (exactly $1,763,723) Neverjam
Kung Fury: Street Rage - Ultimate Edition older $19.99 2,251 89% 68k $1.3M (exactly $1,349,925) Hello There Games
Poetry of Blood: Eclipse · EA $14.99 406 91% 12k $183k (exactly $182,578) ZeroGameStudio
Sora older $8.99 384 94% 12k $104k (exactly $103,565) Orange_Juice
Diesel Legacy: The Brazen Age $19.99 145 91% 4.4k $87k (exactly $86,956) Maximum Entertainment
Acceleration of SUGURI 2 older $8.99 283 92% 8.5k $76k (exactly $76,325) Orange_Juice
Aeon Must Die! older $19.99 100 51% 3.0k $60k (exactly $59,970) Limestone Games
Coreupt $24.99 41 78% 1.2k $31k (exactly $30,738) Team Coreupt LLC
TERRORHYTHM (TRRT) - Rhythm driven action beat 'em up! older $19.99 47 72% 1.4k $28k (exactly $28,186) EvilCoGames
The Rumble Fish 2 older $14.99 58 50% 1.7k $26k (exactly $26,083) 株式会社3goo
Immortal Joan: Cyber Revolution $6.99 47 46% 1.4k $9.9k (exactly $9,856) 康师傅红烧甜不辣
NINJA KAMUI: SHINOBI ORIGINS $19.99 6 100% 180 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) G.rev Ltd.
Skullhunter A Worm's Tale $7.99 10 100% 300 $2.4k (exactly $2,397) Oliver Arett
Galaxy Invaders - Eclipse Squadron $4.99 14 100% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) PlayCube Interactive
Chemical Combat $8.99 7 100% 210 $1.9k (exactly $1,888) SigmoidDev
Lone Warrior's Fist $5.99 10 100% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) CreatiCell Games
CORA $6.99 8 87% 240 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) Empty House Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.