Do I ship it?

GamesHero ShooterHero Shooter + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Hero Shooter?

Hero Shooter + Futuristic

Of 31 developers who shipped a Futuristic Hero Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build. 16 developers shipped in the last year and 47 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 615% on the market, 47 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hero Shooter + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $239 → $2.6k → $479 → $0 → $179 → $599 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hero Shooter + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $2.3k (exactly $2,338)
Top 5% $579k (exactly $578,768)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 133
Announced 47
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 615% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hero Shooter
effort 9 / 10 · low · competitive netcode plus hero balance and content cadence
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Hero Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, FPS
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Third Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 45,923 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $150, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $570k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hero Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SimulationLong shot31 devs · median $478 · 28 announced
  2. + Bullet HellLong shot59 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  3. + Boomer ShooterLong shot30 devs · median $210 · 21 announced
  4. + MedievalLong shot10 devs · median $150 · 12 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds20 devs · median $7.2k · 51 announced
  6. + SuperheroPoor odds6 devs · median $6.3k · 11 announced
  7. + Battle RoyalePoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 53 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds27 devs · median $2.3k · 127 announced
  10. + PlatformerPoor odds21 devs · median $2.2k · 33 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds25 devs · median $2.1k · 68 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds27 devs · median $1.6k · 34 announced

All 87 pairs on the Hero Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III older $59.99 157,694 88% 4.7M $284M (exactly $283,801,892) Treyarch, Aspyr (Mac)
Titanfall® 2 older $29.99 255,050 95% 7.7M $229M (exactly $229,468,485) Respawn Entertainment
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Call of Duty®: Infinite Warfare older $59.99 17,489 65% 525k $31M (exactly $31,474,953) Infinity Ward
Crysis 2 Remastered older $29.99 9,034 89% 271k $8.1M (exactly $8,127,890) Crytek, Saber Interactive
Crysis 3 Remastered older $29.99 7,731 88% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,955,581) Crytek, Saber Interactive
Raw Data older $39.99 2,036 81% 61k $2.4M (exactly $2,442,589) Survios
Spin Rhythm XD older $19.99 3,788 97% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,271,664) Super Spin Digital
TRIBES 3: Rivals · EA older $19.99 1,324 61% 40k $794k (exactly $794,003) Prophecy Games
IRON REBELLION $24.99 772 84% 23k $579k (exactly $578,768) Black Beach Studio
Cowboy 3030 $14.99 96 87% 2.9k $43k (exactly $43,171) Soy Boy Games
Operation Night Strikers $24.99 48 77% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) M2 Co., Ltd.
Wasteland with Robots $9.99 34 94% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Gamesforgames
IHAS $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) The Difference Studios
VILOVEJETS $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Polka Studio
SorcerialBladeCannon $12.99 6 66% 180 $2.3k (exactly $2,338) MACHINECODE
MATH FPS : Solve Or Die · EA $4.99 14 85% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Crosse Studios, Fyros Games Studio
Harpoon Arena $5.99 10 90% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) FairGoose

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.