Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Wargame

Of 167 developers who shipped a Wargame Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 239 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $99k, ×159 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 239 games are announced against 102 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 239 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 167
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.4k → $3.0k → $6.5k → $1.8k → $2.5k → $2.2k → $2.5k (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 167
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,032)
Top 5% $100k (exactly $99,697)
Developers, 2 yr 167
Released games 555
Announced 239
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.90

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Wargame; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Tactical
Price point
$9.90 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.90.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 24,189 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $99k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 94 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 239 games are announced against 102 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV older $59.99 13,086 62% 393k $24M (exactly $23,550,874) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII older $59.99 5,828 57% 175k $10M (exactly $10,488,652) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War older $39.99 8,148 82% 244k $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) Proxy Studios
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children older $24.99 9,464 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,095,161) Dandylion
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XI with Power Up Kit older $39.99 3,754 92% 113k $4.5M (exactly $4,503,674) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Panzer Corps 2 older $39.99 3,512 84% 105k $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) Flashback Games
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC
Warside $24.99 547 68% 16k $410k (exactly $410,086) LAVABIRD
BRIGANDINE ABYSS $49.99 248 35% 7.4k $372k (exactly $371,926) Adglobe
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
Kingdom's Deck $9.99 495 72% 15k $148k (exactly $148,352) Ivan Aco
Pennon and Battle $18.99 175 69% 5.3k $100k (exactly $99,697) PB Studio
Death Ring: Second Impact · EA $19.99 163 78% 4.9k $98k (exactly $97,751) Rouge Mecha

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.