Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Psychological Horror

Of 55 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is up 310% on the market; 56 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 310% on the market, 56 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $41k → $54k → $24k → $1.0k → $21k → $539 → $7.3k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $37,779)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 120
Announced 56
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.66

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 310% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, RPG
Price point
$6.66 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $6.66.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 57,793 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  9. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  10. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  11. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced
  12. + Local MultiplayerLong shot101 devs · median $239 · 121 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- $59.99 6,893 88% 207k $12M (exactly $12,405,332) Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc.
Reverse Collapse: Code Name Bakery older $24.99 4,861 78% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,644,292) Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co.… (Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co., Ltd.)
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
Fuga: Melodies of Steel older $39.99 1,181 93% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,846) CyberConnect2
Spirit Island older $24.99 1,545 91% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,158,286) Handelabra Games Inc.
Warhammer Quest (Classic) older $29.99 897 71% 27k $807k (exactly $807,031) Rodeo Games, Twistplay
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis
Out Of Hands $17.99 1,322 93% 40k $713k (exactly $713,483) Game River
Rento Fortune: Online Dice Board Game (大富翁) older $4.99 3,063 50% 92k $459k (exactly $458,531) LAN - GAMES LTD
Vultures - Scavengers of Death $17.99 532 81% 16k $287k (exactly $287,120) Team Vultures
Fuga: Melodies of Steel 3 $39.99 220 89% 6.6k $264k (exactly $263,934) CyberConnect2
Menherarium: Deadly Dice $8.99 669 92% 20k $180k (exactly $180,429) テスカトリポカ
R-Type Tactics I • II Cosmos $49.99 94 82% 2.8k $141k (exactly $140,972) Granzella Inc.
Nightmare Frontier $24.99 187 69% 5.6k $140k (exactly $140,194) Ice Code Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.