Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Word Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Word Game Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Word Game

Of 23 developers who shipped a Word Game Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×253 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 31 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 31 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Word Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.7k → $3.6k → $15k → $99k → $18k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Word Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,648)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,970)
Top 5% $120k (exactly $120,180)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 58
Announced 31
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Word Game
effort 1 / 10 · high · dictionary logic and simple UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat, Word Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Simulation
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 3,318 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
灵墟 older $10.99 946 86% 28k $312k (exactly $311,896) HappyTall Game
轮回修仙传 $4.99 1,085 81% 33k $162k (exactly $162,424) Collider Studio
Wordatro! $9.99 401 85% 12k $120k (exactly $120,180) Le Poulet
The Eastern Sacrifice $9.99 356 55% 11k $107k (exactly $106,693) 五条虾仁(5 shrimps)
小小侠客模拟器 $2.99 1,103 86% 33k $99k (exactly $98,939) 小小游戏
Throne of Monsters 怪物的王座 $12.99 130 92% 3.9k $51k (exactly $50,661) 雏形游戏
WonderLang Polyglot $39.99 36 80% 1.1k $43k (exactly $43,189) bair games
Terra Alia: The Language Discovery RPG older $14.99 96 64% 2.9k $43k (exactly $43,171) 30 Parallel
Tomb of the Bloodletter $7.99 100 88% 3.0k $24k (exactly $23,970) Ethan's Secretions
Tower of Origin2-Worm's Nest older $13.99 49 67% 1.5k $21k (exactly $20,565) Villain Role
Eternal Sword Tomb · EA $8.99 68 77% 2.0k $18k (exactly $18,340) 阿郎
WonderLang Spanish $24.99 20 80% 600 $15k (exactly $14,994) bair games
WonderLang French $24.99 19 84% 570 $14k (exactly $14,244) bair games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.