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Should I ship a Trading Flight game?
Flight + Trading
Only 6 developers shipped a Trading Flight game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ostranauts, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $36k, ×57 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2996 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 21 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $0 (exactly $0) |
|---|---|
| Median | $36k (exactly $35,982) |
| Top 25% | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) |
| Top 5% | $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 6 |
| Released games | 32 |
| Announced | 21 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 400% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Flight, Trading
- Price point
- $19.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $15.99.
The top 10 games average 77% positive over 60,503 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. 21 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Flight with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Choose Your Own AdventureFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + Quick-Time EventsFair
- + CatsFair
- + Life SimPoor odds
- + MiningPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + EconomyPoor odds
- + RTSPoor odds
- + Cold WarPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M 
Avorion 2020 · $9.7M 
X Rebirth 2013 · $4.6M 
《蜀山：初章》买断版 2022 · $4.3M 
Starpoint Gemini 2 2014 · $3.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | X4: Foundations | older | $49.99 | 25,257 79% | 758k | $38M (exactly $37,877,923) | Egosoft |
| | Avorion | older | $24.99 | 13,001 90% | 390k | $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) | Boxelware |
| | X Rebirth | older | $29.99 | 5,156 42% | 155k | $4.6M (exactly $4,638,853) | Egosoft |
| | 《蜀山：初章》买断版 | older | $24.99 | 5,772 74% | 173k | $4.3M (exactly $4,327,268) | 重楼工作室 |
| | Starpoint Gemini 2 | older | $34.99 | 3,021 70% | 91k | $3.2M (exactly $3,171,144) | Little Green Men Games |
 | Ostranauts | $19.99 | 3,137 77% | 94k | $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) | Blue Bottle Games | |
 | Starminer | · EA | $29.99 | 1,818 72% | 55k | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) | CoolAndGoodGames |
 | X3: Terran Conflict | older | $15.99 | 2,090 84% | 63k | $1.0M (exactly $1,002,573) | Egosoft |
 | Frontier Pilot Simulator | older | $24.99 | 836 69% | 25k | $627k (exactly $626,749) | RAZAR s.r.o. |
 | Evochron Legacy SE | older | $24.99 | 415 82% | 12k | $311k (exactly $311,126) | StarWraith 3D Games LLC |
 | Stellar Wanderer DX | $19.99 | 60 71% | 1.8k | $36k (exactly $35,982) | Dream Builder Studios | |
 | Moon Carrier | $4.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | UNPREDICTABLE GAMES | |
 | Deep Haul | $10.00 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | MJ Games | |
 | 4096 Space Traders Era | $7.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Benoit Varasse |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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