Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Trading game?

Loot + Trading

Of 23 developers who shipped a Loot Trading game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $23k, ×36 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×3405 the market median. Revenue is up 8290% on the market; 60 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 36.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 8290% on the market, 60 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $40k → $3.7k (still earning) → $76k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $897 (exactly $897)
Median $23k (exactly $22,661)
Top 25% $152k (exactly $152,380)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 56
Announced 60
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 8290% on the market, supply 260% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 38%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot, Trading; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Resource Management, Exploration, RPG
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 44% positive over 33,757 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $23k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. All of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Storage Hunter Simulator $24.99 3,866 78% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,898,340) Raccoons Studio
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive
BidKing $2.99 22,238 33% 667k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749) MindSurge Network & Games
Concubine · EA $14.99 517 81% 16k $232k (exactly $232,495) Upgrade Entertainment
Bones and Coins $7.99 638 72% 19k $153k (exactly $152,929) Troyd Games
Vanguard Galaxy · EA $8.99 565 90% 17k $152k (exactly $152,380) Bat Roost Games
The Viking Way · EA older $14.99 331 42% 9.9k $149k (exactly $148,851) Ice Lava Games
Treasure Beach $9.99 271 81% 8.1k $81k (exactly $81,219) Rogue Duck Interactive
Between Adventures IDLE · EA $7.99 319 71% 9.6k $76k (exactly $76,464) Loop Forge
IDLE_DIRECTIVE $4.99 505 86% 15k $76k (exactly $75,598) Kevinfu510
BIG LOOT · EA $15.99 83 68% 2.5k $40k (exactly $39,815) Reverie Clouds

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.