Do I ship it?

Games › Collectathon › Collectathon + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Trading game?

Collectathon + Trading

Of 28 developers who shipped a Collectathon Trading game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $30k, ×63 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.1M, ×8796 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 65 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 63.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 65 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $390 → $579k → $10k → $30k (still earning) → $34k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Median $30k (exactly $30,010)
Top 25% $126k (exactly $125,916)
Top 5% $4.2M (exactly $4,178,110)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 60
Announced 65
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 33%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Trading; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Economy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 62,595 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $30k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $4.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 6 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

TCG Card Shop Simulator 2026 · $28M Tiny Bookshop 2025 · $4.2M Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection 2026 · $788k Tiny Aquarium: Social Fishkeeping 2025 · $761k Supercar Collection Simulator 2025 · $595k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Tiny Bookshop $19.99 6,967 96% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,178,110) neoludic games
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Tiny Aquarium: Social Fishkeeping $7.49 3,386 95% 102k $761k (exactly $760,834) Lunheim Studios
Supercar Collection Simulator $12.99 1,528 85% 46k $595k (exactly $595,462) Kiki Games
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame
Kardboard Kings: Card Shop Simulator older $19.99 325 73% 9.8k $195k (exactly $194,902) Henry's House, Oscar Brittain, Rob Gross
Arcane Merchant $14.99 280 84% 8.4k $126k (exactly $125,916) Findie Studios
GeckoShop $9.99 342 66% 10k $102k (exactly $102,497) Reptoid
Treasure Beach $9.99 271 81% 8.1k $81k (exactly $81,219) Rogue Duck Interactive
TCG Multiplayer Card Shop Simulator · EA $12.99 198 54% 5.9k $77k (exactly $77,161) Alkame Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.