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Should I ship a Time Manipulation Walking Simulator?
Time Manipulation + Walking Simulator
Only 11 developers shipped a Time Manipulation Walking Simulator in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Coconut Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $2.3k, ×5.0 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 26 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $298 (exactly $298) |
|---|---|
| Median | $598 (exactly $598) |
| Top 25% | $657 (exactly $657) |
| Top 5% | $2.4k (exactly $2,369) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 11 |
| Released games | 52 |
| Announced | 26 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $0.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Time Manipulation
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Walking Simulator
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Time Manipulation, Walking Simulator; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $0.99 typical · top 25% priced $0.99 or above
- Art
- 9 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Relaxing
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $0.99 or above; the middle game at $0.99.
The top 10 games average 95% positive over 1,587 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Time Manipulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + DemonsFair
- + CapitalismFair
- + ModernFair
- + PsychologicalFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + RacingFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds
- + RobotsPoor odds
- + Post-apocalypticPoor odds
- + DetectivePoor odds
- + NoirPoor odds
Comparable games
Nobody Wants to Die 2024 · $4.4M 
The Gardens Between 2018 · $1.4M 
NUTS 2021 · $663k 
The Gap 2023 · $93k 
Flat Earth Simulator 2020 · $26k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Nobody Wants to Die | older | $24.99 | 5,818 83% | 175k | $4.4M (exactly $4,361,755) | Critical Hit Games |
| | The Gardens Between | older | $19.99 | 2,362 93% | 71k | $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) | The Voxel Agents |
| | NUTS | older | $24.99 | 884 88% | 27k | $663k (exactly $662,735) | Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi |
| | The Gap | older | $19.99 | 155 94% | 4.7k | $93k (exactly $92,954) | Label This |
| | Flat Earth Simulator | older | $7.99 | 108 72% | 3.2k | $26k (exactly $25,888) | The Truthtellers |
 | Stump Simulator | older | $7.99 | 96 86% | 2.9k | $23k (exactly $23,011) | Dynamic Games |
 | Coconut Simulator | $0.99 | 735 96% | 22k | $22k (exactly $21,830) | Dynamic Games | |
 | Coconut Simulator 2 | $0.99 | 621 96% | 19k | $18k (exactly $18,444) | Dynamic Games | |
 | Be | · EA older | $12.99 | 26 76% | 780 | $10k (exactly $10,132) | shinywhitebox ltd |
 | Cactus Simulator 2 | older | $7.99 | 35 74% | 1.1k | $8.4k (exactly $8,390) | Dynamic Games |
 | The Office Void | $1.49 | 53 86% | 1.6k | $2.4k (exactly $2,369) | Coldheart Entertainment | |
 | Weed Simulator | $0.99 | 53 90% | 1.6k | $1.6k (exactly $1,574) | Dynamic Games | |
 | Grass Life Sim | $0.99 | 40 92% | 1.2k | $1.2k (exactly $1,188) | Dynamic Games | |
 | Grass Life Sim 2 | $0.99 | 40 97% | 1.2k | $1.2k (exactly $1,188) | Dynamic Games | |
 | Watermelon Simulator | $0.99 | 26 96% | 780 | $772 (exactly $772) | Dynamic Games | |
 | Beach Vacation Simulator | $1.99 | 11 90% | 330 | $657 (exactly $657) | Scott H.F. Dunbar | |
 | Vigaro Runner 2: Return | $4.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $599 (exactly $599) | DIG Games | |
 | Duty Free Shop Simulator | · EA | $4.99 | 4 25% | 120 | $599 (exactly $599) | CLOWN MAGIC |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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