Do I ship it?

GamesTime ManipulationTime Manipulation + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Time Manipulation game?

Time Manipulation + Detective

Only 16 developers shipped a Detective Time Manipulation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Posthumous Investigation, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.5k, ×14 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×699 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 32 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 32 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Time Manipulation + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $56k → $1.0k → $23k → $6.5k → $5.5k → $8.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Time Manipulation + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Median $6.5k (exactly $6,473)
Top 25% $98k (exactly $98,351)
Top 5% $332k (exactly $332,234)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 43
Announced 32
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Time Manipulation
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 2,477 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $6.5k, 1 in 4 over $98k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Time Manipulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DemonsFair14 devs · median $2.7k · 9 announced
  2. + CapitalismFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + ModernFair12 devs · median $987 · 9 announced
  4. + PsychologicalFair18 devs · median $897 · 17 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair10 devs · median $657 · 15 announced
  6. + RacingFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair22 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  8. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 24 announced
  9. + RobotsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 16 announced
  10. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced
  11. + NoirPoor odds9 devs · median $6.5k · 15 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds32 devs · median $5.4k · 93 announced

All 103 pairs on the Time Manipulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Nobody Wants to Die older $24.99 5,818 83% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,361,755) Critical Hit Games
The Silent Age older $9.99 5,966 93% 179k $1.8M (exactly $1,788,010) House On Fire
The Sexy Brutale older $19.99 2,895 91% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,736,131) Cavalier Game Studios, Tequila Works
NUTS older $24.99 884 88% 27k $663k (exactly $662,735) Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi
Lucifer Within Us older $19.99 635 73% 19k $381k (exactly $380,809) Kitfox Games
The Posthumous Investigation $19.99 554 94% 17k $332k (exactly $332,234) Mother Gaia Studio
Dinocop $14.99 737 96% 22k $331k (exactly $331,429) Pieces Games
Eternal Threads older $19.99 543 87% 16k $326k (exactly $325,637) Cosmonaut Studios
Kill The Shadow $16.99 447 86% 13k $228k (exactly $227,836) Shadowlight
Kulebra and the Souls of Limbo: Closure Edition $19.99 164 99% 4.9k $98k (exactly $98,351) Galla
Super Drift Blade $6.99 351 94% 11k $74k (exactly $73,605) Liujiajun
Hank: Drowning On Dry Land $2.99 140 95% 4.2k $13k (exactly $12,558) My Next Games
Who Summoned It? $9.99 29 96% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) Crooked Foot
Mysteries of Perception $8.99 24 87% 720 $6.5k (exactly $6,473) 50 Rats Games
Forgotten 23 $12.99 14 92% 420 $5.5k (exactly $5,456) KovalGames
No.13813 $5.99 17 88% 510 $3.1k (exactly $3,055) Typebits

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.