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Should I ship a Time Manipulation Visual Novel?
Time Manipulation + Visual Novel
Only 17 developers shipped a Time Manipulation Visual Novel in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sovereign Tower, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×6.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×3897 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.1k (exactly $3,055) |
| Top 25% | $39k (exactly $38,970) |
| Top 5% | $1.9M (exactly $1,851,274) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 17 |
| Released games | 50 |
| Announced | 30 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $10.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Time Manipulation
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Time Manipulation, Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Adventure, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 6,025 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Time Manipulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + DemonsFair
- + CapitalismFair
- + ModernFair
- + PsychologicalFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + RacingFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds
- + RobotsPoor odds
- + Post-apocalypticPoor odds
- + DetectivePoor odds
- + NoirPoor odds
Comparable games
Sovereign Tower 2026 · $1.9M 
DevilConnection 2025 · $975k 
Homebody 2023 · $379k 
The Posthumous Investigation 2026 · $332k 
Ever 17 - The Out of Infinity 2025 · $164k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sovereign Tower | $19.99 | 3,087 93% | 93k | $1.9M (exactly $1,851,274) | WILD WITS GAMES | |
| | DevilConnection | $16.66 | 1,951 98% | 59k | $975k (exactly $975,110) | ChaoGames | |
| | Homebody | older | $19.99 | 632 93% | 19k | $379k (exactly $379,010) | Game Grumps |
| | The Posthumous Investigation | $19.99 | 554 94% | 17k | $332k (exactly $332,234) | Mother Gaia Studio | |
| | Ever 17 - The Out of Infinity | $29.99 | 182 82% | 5.5k | $164k (exactly $163,745) | MAGES. Inc. | |
 | ChronoClock | older | $29.99 | 151 91% | 4.5k | $136k (exactly $135,855) | Purple Software |
 | Loop8: Summer of Gods | older | $39.99 | 107 45% | 3.2k | $128k (exactly $128,368) | Marvelous Inc. |
 | Timeloop: Sink Again Beach | older | $11.99 | 350 90% | 11k | $126k (exactly $125,895) | Fang's Lab, Flatcoon |
 | her tears were my light | older | $2.99 | 780 99% | 23k | $70k (exactly $69,966) | NomnomNami |
 | Re:Turn - One Way Trip | older | $11.99 | 132 79% | 4.0k | $47k (exactly $47,480) | Red Ego Games |
 | Never 7 - The End of Infinity | $19.99 | 69 66% | 2.1k | $41k (exactly $41,379) | MAGES. Inc. | |
 | The Demons Told Me to Make This Game | · EA | $12.99 | 100 98% | 3.0k | $39k (exactly $38,970) | Haunted Dude |
 | Escape Everlit | $10.99 | 27 100% | 810 | $8.9k (exactly $8,902) | lantao studio | |
 | Mysteries of Perception | $8.99 | 24 87% | 720 | $6.5k (exactly $6,473) | 50 Rats Games | |
 | Forgotten 23 | $12.99 | 14 92% | 420 | $5.5k (exactly $5,456) | KovalGames | |
 | No.13813 | $5.99 | 17 88% | 510 | $3.1k (exactly $3,055) | Typebits |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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