Do I ship it?

GamesTime ManipulationTime Manipulation + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation Top-Down Shooter?

Time Manipulation + Top-Down Shooter

Only 12 developers shipped a Time Manipulation Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Deadeye Deepfake Simulacrum, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×688 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 20 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Time Manipulation + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Time Manipulation + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $4,042)
Top 5% $327k (exactly $326,958)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 29
Announced 20
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Time Manipulation, Top-Down Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 98% positive over 969 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $4.0k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Time Manipulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DemonsFair14 devs · median $2.7k · 9 announced
  2. + CapitalismFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + ModernFair12 devs · median $987 · 9 announced
  4. + PsychologicalFair18 devs · median $897 · 17 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair10 devs · median $657 · 15 announced
  6. + RacingFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair22 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  8. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 24 announced
  9. + RobotsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 16 announced
  10. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced
  11. + DetectivePoor odds16 devs · median $6.5k · 32 announced
  12. + NoirPoor odds9 devs · median $6.5k · 15 announced

All 103 pairs on the Time Manipulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Plan B older $14.99 761 86% 23k $342k (exactly $342,222) GFX47
Deadeye Deepfake Simulacrum $12.99 839 98% 25k $327k (exactly $326,958) nodayshalleraseyou
Time Recoil older $13.99 65 76% 2.0k $27k (exactly $27,280) 10tons Ltd
The Ambassador: Fractured Timelines older $14.99 23 86% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) tinyDino Games
WAVECADE older $9.99 27 92% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Andrew Spalato, Lewis Spalato
AIRANBLADE $8.99 17 94% 510 $4.6k (exactly $4,585) ANIMABOX
GOST of Time $4.99 27 100% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) IzHard
Friendship Club · EA older $11.99 8 75% 240 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) Force Of Habit, Clockwork Cuckoo
UltraGoodness 2 older $4.99 19 73% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) Rasul Mono
BACKFIRE $9.99 9 100% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) SQYD.studio
Negative Time $4.99 16 100% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Round Owl
Symphorix · EA $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) OnTriggerJoy
Captain Puff MacFly $2.99 23 95% 690 $2.1k (exactly $2,063) MVCAO Studios
Sakamoto Dangerous Barrage $2.99 22 100% 660 $2.0k (exactly $1,973) Retsu Teikoku
Cosmic Scramble $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Nerdy Birdy Games
Protocol:Chrono $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) SilverMoon Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.