Do I ship it?

GamesTabletopTabletop + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Tabletop game?

Tabletop + Western

Only 13 developers shipped a Western Tabletop game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Bonesaw, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $35k, ×57 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 9 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 9 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tabletop + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $3.8k → $22k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tabletop + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,775)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,529)
Top 5% $36k (exactly $35,764)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 26
Announced 9
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tabletop
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 443 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $35k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tabletop with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BuildingFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  2. + CRPGFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  3. + RTSFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  4. + MilitaryFair30 devs · median $1.4k · 20 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  6. + DragonsFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + MahjongFair26 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  8. + WargameFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  9. + SpaceFair29 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  10. + CapitalismFair35 devs · median $807 · 33 announced
  11. + HorrorFair50 devs · median $776 · 51 announced
  12. + Local Co-OpFair31 devs · median $748 · 33 announced

All 155 pairs on the Tabletop page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Diorama Builder older $4.99 391 94% 12k $59k (exactly $58,533) Virtual Arts Studio
Bonesaw $6.66 179 89% 5.4k $36k (exactly $35,764) Blood Pact Studios
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
Racket Pinball $19.99 37 91% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) NiVision
WAGON $10.99 38 94% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) de_husk
DEAD MAN'S HAND: Card Roulette Action older $4.99 31 100% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) Black Garden Studios
Broke Signal Badlands: A World of Desert Adventure $14.99 10 90% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Forward Instinct
Chess, Texas $4.99 27 81% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Studio Apollo
Poker Simulator older $4.99 27 51% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) netmin games
Roulette Heist $6.99 18 94% 540 $3.8k (exactly $3,775) DreamArk Lab
Seven Sinners $7.99 14 85% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) BillysBones, Grable Team
Mole or Not · EA $2.99 15 53% 450 $1.3k (exactly $1,346) EY GAMES
The First Mine $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Stefan Böttcher

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.