Do I ship it?

GamesTabletopTabletop + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Tabletop game?

Tabletop + Dragons

Of 21 developers who shipped a Dragon Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is up 2205% on the market; 21 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 2205% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tabletop + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179 → $204k → $150 → $2.7k → $1.9k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tabletop + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,423)
Top 5% $204k (exactly $204,232)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 56
Announced 21
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2205% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tabletop; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Board Game, Strategy, RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,440 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tabletop with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BuildingFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  2. + CRPGFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  3. + RTSFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  4. + MilitaryFair30 devs · median $1.4k · 20 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  6. + MahjongFair26 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  7. + WargameFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  8. + SpaceFair29 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  9. + CapitalismFair35 devs · median $807 · 33 announced
  10. + HorrorFair50 devs · median $776 · 51 announced
  11. + Local Co-OpFair31 devs · median $748 · 33 announced
  12. + Psychological HorrorFair28 devs · median $746 · 30 announced

All 155 pairs on the Tabletop page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dungeon Alchemist · EA older $44.99 2,666 94% 80k $3.6M (exactly $3,598,300) Briganti
Munchkin Digital older $14.99 1,352 76% 41k $608k (exactly $607,994) Dire Wolf
Clank! $22.99 542 92% 16k $374k (exactly $373,817) Dire Wolf
Talisman: Digital 5th Edition $29.99 227 70% 6.8k $204k (exactly $204,232) Nomad Games
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Kyvir: Rebirth · EA older $7.99 361 76% 11k $87k (exactly $86,532) Dawnblaze Entertainment
Dark Quest 4 $19.99 136 75% 4.1k $82k (exactly $81,559) Brain Seal Ltd
Rogue older $2.99 498 94% 15k $45k (exactly $44,671) Epyx, Inc.
Medieval Fantasy Survival Simulator older $1.99 252 96% 7.6k $15k (exactly $15,044) Randumb Studios
AFKandia - Epoch of Idle $5.99 66 45% 2.0k $12k (exactly $11,860) Yang++ Game Studio
Knock on Fate:The Guardian Pusher $5.99 58 87% 1.7k $10k (exactly $10,423) 刚正面的红领巾
King of Tokyo - Richard Garfield $19.99 16 68% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Breakfirst
Dragon Inn $9.99 9 100% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Nordexa
Dragonwake $7.99 8 62% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) Mr Crops
You Die Today $7.99 7 71% 210 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) Tabletale Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.