Do I ship it?

Games › Tabletop › Tabletop + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Tabletop game?

Tabletop + War

Of 36 developers who shipped a War Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×590 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 50 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 50 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tabletop + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $3.0k → $1.1k → $2.2k → $6.6k → $5.5k → $1.3k (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tabletop + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,989)
Top 5% $371k (exactly $370,676)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 115
Announced 50
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tabletop; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Wargame
Price point
$10.00 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.00.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 3,967 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tabletop with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BuildingFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  2. + CRPGFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  3. + RTSFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  4. + MilitaryFair30 devs · median $1.4k · 20 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  6. + DragonsFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + MahjongFair26 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  8. + WargameFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  9. + SpaceFair29 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  10. + CapitalismFair35 devs · median $807 · 33 announced
  11. + HorrorFair50 devs · median $776 · 51 announced
  12. + Local Co-OpFair31 devs · median $748 · 33 announced

All 155 pairs on the Tabletop page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Ultimate General: Civil War 2017 · $7.5M TRIANGLE STRATEGY 2022 · $5.8M Axis & Allies 1942 Online 2021 · $2.9M Root 2020 · $2.3M Scythe: Digital Edition 2018 · $1.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ultimate General: Civil War older $29.99 8,331 88% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,495,401) Game-Labs
TRIANGLE STRATEGY older $59.99 3,239 78% 97k $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
Root older $14.99 5,049 90% 151k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,535) Dire Wolf
Scythe: Digital Edition older $19.99 3,164 89% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,897,451) The Knights of Unity
Tabletop Tavern $19.99 2,049 89% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) TJ
Radio Commander: Vietnam '64 older $19.99 1,764 72% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,057,871) Serious Sim
A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition older $19.99 1,705 71% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,022,488) Dire Wolf
The Troop older $39.99 816 83% 24k $979k (exactly $978,955) Giant Flame
Field of Glory II older $29.99 705 87% 21k $634k (exactly $634,288) Byzantine Games
HEART of CROWN Online $29.99 412 84% 12k $371k (exactly $370,676) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, quziralab.
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
Strategos · EA $24.99 233 85% 7.0k $175k (exactly $174,680) Strategos Games
Mr. President $19.99 162 75% 4.9k $97k (exactly $97,151) Exia Labs
Monopoly: Star Wars™ Heroes vs. Villains $29.99 94 39% 2.8k $85k (exactly $84,572) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Space Imperia 4X $22.99 70 92% 2.1k $48k (exactly $48,279) Breich Games
Deckline $3.99 294 86% 8.8k $35k (exactly $35,192) Room Games, KREIDPIX
Vestiges: Fallen Tribes $24.99 36 80% 1.1k $27k (exactly $26,989) WanadevStudio
Combat Directive : Napoleonic Wars $19.99 36 88% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Fatice Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.