Do I ship it?

GamesTabletopTabletop + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tabletop Visual Novel?

Tabletop + Visual Novel

Of 23 developers who shipped a Tabletop Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×14 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×1941 the market median. Revenue is up 500% on the market; 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 500% on the market, 30 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tabletop + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $9.2k → $6.1k → $479 → $1.6k → $3.2k → $7.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tabletop + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,275)
Top 5% $231k (exactly $230,992)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 113
Announced 30
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.89

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 500% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Tabletop, Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Card Game
Price point
$7.89 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.89.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 10,124 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tabletop with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BuildingFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  2. + CRPGFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  3. + RTSFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  4. + MilitaryFair30 devs · median $1.4k · 20 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  6. + DragonsFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + MahjongFair26 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  8. + WargameFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  9. + SpaceFair29 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  10. + CapitalismFair35 devs · median $807 · 33 announced
  11. + HorrorFair50 devs · median $776 · 51 announced
  12. + Local Co-OpFair31 devs · median $748 · 33 announced

All 155 pairs on the Tabletop page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Esoteric Ebb $24.99 8,719 95% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) Christoffer Bodegård
The Life and Suffering of Sir Brante older $19.99 8,151 89% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,888,155) Sever, Schisma Games
Werewolf: The Apocalypse — Heart of the Forest older $14.99 805 83% 24k $362k (exactly $362,008) Different Tales
Sovereign Syndicate older $19.99 573 79% 17k $344k (exactly $343,628) Crimson Herring Studios
The Test: Final Revelation older $1.99 5,286 97% 159k $316k (exactly $315,574) Randumb Studios
Sacred Fire: A Role Playing Game · EA older $18.99 475 94% 14k $271k (exactly $270,608) Poetic
Wintermoor Tactics Club older $14.99 538 87% 16k $242k (exactly $241,939) EVC Games
Crown Gambit $17.99 428 94% 13k $231k (exactly $230,992) WILD WITS GAMES
Regency Solitaire older $11.99 559 96% 17k $201k (exactly $201,072) Grey Alien Games
Ancient Enemy older $16.99 386 89% 12k $197k (exactly $196,744) Grey Alien Games
Menherarium: Deadly Dice $8.99 669 92% 20k $180k (exactly $180,429) テスカトリポカ
Shadowhand Solitaire $13.99 64 90% 1.9k $27k (exactly $26,861) Grey Alien Games
Songs of Life $8.99 80 81% 2.4k $22k (exactly $21,576) DreamStep
Lustful BlackJack: My Succubus Dealer $6.99 49 61% 1.5k $10k (exactly $10,275) 78Games, Matariki Studios Co., Ltd
Pretty Girl Puzzle · Summer Phantom $4.99 50 98% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) Pomodoro Lab
H.P Supernatural Event Archives $8.99 20 75% 600 $5.4k (exactly $5,394) Bangke Studio, JoyPi Games
Escape Tales: The Awakening $7.99 17 94% 510 $4.1k (exactly $4,075) Bluekey Games
BIG TOYS $3.99 28 89% 840 $3.4k (exactly $3,352) Kawaii

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.