Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tabletop Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Tabletop

Of 137 developers who shipped a Tabletop Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 254 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $88k, ×187 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 254 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 254 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 137
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $19k → $43k → $3.1k → $2.5k → $1.4k → $1.9k → $599 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 137
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $6.6k (exactly $6,593)
Top 5% $89k (exactly $88,591)
Developers, 2 yr 137
Released games 356
Announced 254
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat, Tabletop; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 4,865 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $720, 1 in 4 over $6.5k, 1 in 20 over $88k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 254 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus older $29.99 11,279 91% 338k $10M (exactly $10,147,716) Bulwark Studios
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
TRIANGLE STRATEGY older $59.99 3,239 78% 97k $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door
Demeo older $39.99 1,703 87% 51k $2.0M (exactly $2,043,089) Resolution Games
Voice of Cards: The Isle Dragon Roars older $29.99 1,277 80% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,148,917) Square Enix
The Troop older $39.99 816 83% 24k $979k (exactly $978,955) Giant Flame
Warhammer Underworlds - Shadespire Edition (Classic) older $29.99 1,059 70% 32k $953k (exactly $952,782) Steel Sky Productions, Tin Man Games
Warhammer Quest (Classic) older $29.99 897 71% 27k $807k (exactly $807,031) Rodeo Games, Twistplay
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Card Cultivation $14.99 694 70% 21k $312k (exactly $312,092) DarkIndex
Dobbel Dungeon $19.99 441 92% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) Gamepie
Master of Chess $19.99 290 83% 8.7k $174k (exactly $173,913) BRANE
Flick Shot Rogues $14.99 295 87% 8.9k $133k (exactly $132,662) Butter By The Fish
Master of Piece · EA $14.99 197 86% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) I M GAME, I M fine
Shields of Loyalty $19.99 140 77% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) Mosaic Mask Studio
Dark Quest 4 $19.99 136 75% 4.1k $82k (exactly $81,559) Brain Seal Ltd
Conquest Tactics : Realm of Sin $14.99 162 69% 4.9k $73k (exactly $72,851) Singular Sunshine Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.