Do I ship it?

GamesTradingTrading + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Tabletop game?

Trading + Tabletop

Only 13 developers shipped a Trading Tabletop game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $570k, ×1218 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 30 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 30 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Trading + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $4.7k (exactly $4,672)
Top 5% $579k (exactly $578,757)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 36
Announced 30
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Trading, Tabletop; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Economy, Immersive Sim, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,832 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $360, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $570k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame
Richman 4 older $5.99 1,614 74% 48k $290k (exactly $290,036) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
Istanbul: Digital Edition older $12.99 258 92% 7.7k $101k (exactly $100,543) Acram Digital
Monopoly: Star Wars™ Heroes vs. Villains $29.99 94 39% 2.8k $85k (exactly $84,572) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Richman 8 older $7.99 214 64% 6.4k $51k (exactly $51,296) SOFTSTAR TECHNOLOGY(BEIJING)CO.LTD
Catan VR older $14.99 86 73% 2.6k $39k (exactly $38,674) Experiment 7
Table Battle Simulator · EA $12.99 85 74% 2.6k $33k (exactly $33,124) Kiki Games
DAGURI: Gambling Apocalypse older $2.99 207 93% 6.2k $19k (exactly $18,568) DakeCraft
The Chronicles of Quiver Dick older $2.99 173 93% 5.2k $16k (exactly $15,518) Crankage Games
Survive or Thrive older $1.99 233 98% 7.0k $14k (exactly $13,910) Randumb Studios
Crack it Up! $5.99 26 88% 780 $4.7k (exactly $4,672) Somnambulist Games
The First Mine $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Stefan Böttcher
Billionaire MAX $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Bunijia
Profiteer · EA $5.99 2 50% 60 $359 (exactly $359) HRUST
香港地產王 $5.99 2 0% 60 $359 (exactly $359) T-Time Technology CO., LTD.
GoGDoD · EA $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) WAP
Haggle simulator $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) 自然的火工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.