Do I ship it?

GamesSurvival HorrorSurvival Horror + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel Survival Horror?

Survival Horror + Visual Novel

Of 55 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Survival Horror in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $450k, ×726 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 63 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 63 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival Horror + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $14k → $13k → $3.4k → $40k → $24k → $600 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival Horror + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,144)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,166)
Top 5% $456k (exactly $455,838)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 191
Announced 63
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival Horror
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival Horror, Visual Novel; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Multiple Endings, Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Dark, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 7,644 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 6 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival Horror with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair13 devs · median $31k · 14 announced
  2. + DrivingFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Tower DefenseFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 16 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + SnowFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  6. + SportsFair5 devs · median $959 · 3 announced
  7. + Outbreak SimFair22 devs · median $958 · 24 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterFair27 devs · median $449 · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds10 devs · median $64k · 42 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds17 devs · median $52k · 21 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced

All 159 pairs on the Survival Horror page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Danganronpa Another Episode: Ultra Despair Girls older $29.99 7,405 81% 222k $6.7M (exactly $6,662,278) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Amnesia: A Machine for Pigs older $19.99 7,236 69% 217k $4.3M (exactly $4,339,429) The Chinese Room
Detention older $11.99 10,372 95% 311k $3.7M (exactly $3,730,808) RedCandleGames
Seed of the Dead: Sweet Home older $29.99 3,006 83% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,704,498) TeamKRAMA
Dream Daddy: A Dad Dating Simulator older $14.99 5,408 91% 162k $2.4M (exactly $2,431,978) Game Grumps
The Coma 2: Vicious Sisters older $14.99 2,810 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,263,657) Dvora Studio Co., Ltd.
The Coma: Recut older $14.99 2,693 84% 81k $1.2M (exactly $1,211,042) Dvora Studio Co., Ltd.
The Test older $1.99 19,599 96% 588k $1.2M (exactly $1,170,060) Randumb Studios
Zanki Zero: Last Beginning older $59.99 650 77% 20k $1.2M (exactly $1,169,805) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Forbidden Solitaire $15.99 2,245 96% 67k $1.1M (exactly $1,076,926) Grey Alien Games, Night Signal Entertai… (Grey Alien Games, Night Signal Entertainment)
YKMET: Strade $14.99 1,189 98% 36k $535k (exactly $534,693) Gatobob
Static Dread: The Lighthouse $10.90 1,394 90% 42k $456k (exactly $455,838) solarsuit.games
SAEKO: Giantess Dating Sim $14.99 715 87% 21k $322k (exactly $321,536) SAFE HAVN STUDIO
The Coma 2B: Catacomb $14.99 584 75% 18k $263k (exactly $262,625) Dvora Studio Co., Ltd.
Creepy Redneck Dinosaur Mansion 3 $19.99 341 96% 10k $204k (exactly $204,498) Strange Scaffold
The Coma 3: Bloodlines $14.99 353 86% 11k $159k (exactly $158,744) Dvora Studio Co., Ltd.
Survivor Strain - Season 1 $8.99 354 95% 11k $95k (exactly $95,474) Mr. Baker
Lustful Dead 🔞 $9.99 267 49% 8.0k $80k (exactly $80,020) BanzaiProject
Heart of the Forest $12.99 202 70% 6.1k $79k (exactly $78,719) Trapped Predator

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.