Do I ship it?

GamesTime ManipulationTime Manipulation + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Time Manipulation game?

Time Manipulation + Supernatural

Only 16 developers shipped a Supernatural Time Manipulation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Drifter, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×5978 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 17 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 17 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Time Manipulation + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $150 → $839 → $39k → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Time Manipulation + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $358 (exactly $358)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $6.5k (exactly $6,473)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 29
Announced 17
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Time Manipulation
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 5,451 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $840, 1 in 4 over $6.4k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Time Manipulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DemonsFair14 devs · median $2.7k · 9 announced
  2. + CapitalismFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + ModernFair12 devs · median $987 · 9 announced
  4. + PsychologicalFair18 devs · median $897 · 17 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair10 devs · median $657 · 15 announced
  6. + RacingFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair22 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  8. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 24 announced
  9. + RobotsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 16 announced
  10. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced
  11. + DetectivePoor odds16 devs · median $6.5k · 32 announced
  12. + NoirPoor odds9 devs · median $6.5k · 15 announced

All 103 pairs on the Time Manipulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Drifter $19.99 4,735 97% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) Powerhoof, Dave Lloyd
The Posthumous Investigation $19.99 554 94% 17k $332k (exactly $332,234) Mother Gaia Studio
The Demons Told Me to Make This Game · EA $12.99 100 98% 3.0k $39k (exactly $38,970) Haunted Dude
Four Lights : The 1st World [Iruka Route] older $9.99 23 100% 690 $6.9k (exactly $6,893) Tiamant Co., Ltd.
Mysteries of Perception $8.99 24 87% 720 $6.5k (exactly $6,473) 50 Rats Games
Lexicon · EA older $9.99 9 100% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Illum Softworks LLC
Detective Malinowski The Truth Will Be Revealed $9.99 8 100% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Game The Same
Rosemary's Fate Life Worth Living older $9.99 8 100% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Game The Same, The Midworld
Always The Same Nightmare older $11.99 4 100% 120 $1.4k (exactly $1,439) DreamVeloper Studio
ANARIA: Reborn $6.99 5 40% 150 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) VOIDEMBER
Temporal Gunslinger $2.99 11 100% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Ledan's Gift
Blue Hill Wendigo $6.99 4 75% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Merchant Of Stories
Backrooms: The Yellow Dream $2.99 7 71% 210 $628 (exactly $628) Crow Games
The Great Ebony Clock $5.00 3 100% 90 $450 (exactly $450) Pixel Chicken Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.