Do I ship it?

GamesSpectacle fighterSpectacle fighter + Third-Person Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spectacle fighter Third-Person Shooter?

Spectacle fighter + Third-Person Shooter

Only 14 developers shipped a Spectacle fighter Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 44 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper, while revenue is up 3665% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 3665% on the market, 44 announced, ×6.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Third-Person Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $49k → $539 → $599 → $0 → $17k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Third-Person Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $6.6k (exactly $6,638)
Top 5% $833k (exactly $833,166)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 60
Announced 44
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3665% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter, Third-Person Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 3,123 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $600, 1 in 4 over $6.6k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DAVIGO: VR vs. PC · EA older $24.99 1,200 84% 36k $900k (exactly $899,640) Davigo Studio
近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau $9.99 2,780 92% 83k $833k (exactly $833,166) Noto Muteki
BloodRayne 2: Terminal Cut older $14.99 1,024 77% 31k $460k (exactly $460,493) Terminal Reality
Ace of Seafood older $11.99 526 91% 16k $189k (exactly $189,202) Calappa Games
Hell Division older $13.99 191 83% 5.7k $80k (exactly $80,163) Quacky Games
The Wraith of the Galaxy · EA older $11.99 161 81% 4.8k $58k (exactly $57,912) Whale Rock Games
Fight Crab 2 · EA older $14.99 128 92% 3.8k $58k (exactly $57,562) Calappa Games
Cyberpunk SFX $9.99 183 83% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) Whale Rock Games
Soul Saber 2 older $9.99 180 59% 5.4k $54k (exactly $53,946) Yamadaya
The Kingdom of the End&The Witch of the Beginning older $8.99 182 64% 5.5k $49k (exactly $49,085) c3アート
Jenny the Witch $7.99 69 88% 2.1k $17k (exactly $16,539) Catbird Soft
Great Tough Bikini 6 $2.99 74 70% 2.2k $6.6k (exactly $6,638) nStarcube
Under Destruction · EA $18.99 3 66% 90 $1.7k (exactly $1,709) Quantum Dynamics
Cockroach Simulation $6.99 3 0% 90 $629 (exactly $629) WIZWIN
Japanese Psycho $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Ghost_RUS Games
Samurai Fighters Together $0.99 5 60% 150 $148 (exactly $148) cnsgames
ShoJinDen $4.20 1 100% 30 $126 (exactly $126) EigetsuGames
Code Ragnarok $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) 吴健002

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.