Do I ship it?

Games › Spectacle fighter › Spectacle fighter + Swordplay

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Swordplay Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Swordplay

Of 41 developers who shipped a Swordplay Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×1.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $17M, ×11857 the market median. Revenue is up 330% on the market; 65 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 330% on the market, 65 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Swordplay
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.2k → $7.5k → $1.6k → $958 → $1.8k → $529k (still earning) → $459k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Swordplay: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 25% $459k (exactly $458,816)
Top 5% $18M (exactly $17,761,362)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 115
Announced 65
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 330% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter, Swordplay; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Hack and Slash, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 54,129 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $450k, 1 in 20 over $17M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE 2014 · $62M Granblue Fantasy: Relink 2024 · $49M DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS 2025 · $41M Onimusha: Way of the Sword 2026 · $24M ASTLIBRA Revision 2022 · $23M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE older $29.99 69,104 96% 2.1M $62M (exactly $62,172,869) PlatinumGames
Granblue Fantasy: Relink older $39.99 41,227 89% 1.2M $49M (exactly $49,460,032) Cygames, Inc.
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Onimusha: Way of the Sword $69.99 11,279 89% 338k $24M (exactly $23,682,516) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
NINJA GAIDEN 4 $69.99 8,459 88% 254k $18M (exactly $17,761,362) PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI… (PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.)
NINJA GAIDEN 2 Black $49.99 3,289 78% 99k $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
En Garde! older $19.99 4,161 90% 125k $2.5M (exactly $2,495,352) Fireplace Games
Killer is Dead - Nightmare Edition older $19.99 3,879 75% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,326,236) KADOKAWA GAMES / GRASSHOPPER MANUFACTURE
Soulstice older $39.99 1,845 76% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,213,446) Reply Game Studios
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
Morbid Metal · EA $17.99 1,555 81% 47k $839k (exactly $839,233) SCREEN JUICE
Stonemachia $19.99 1,244 95% 37k $746k (exactly $746,027) Crossfall Games
LIZARDS MUST DIE 2 $9.99 2,232 94% 67k $669k (exactly $668,930) the Bratans, Smola Game Studio
Onimusha 2: Samurai's Destiny $29.99 663 85% 20k $597k (exactly $596,501) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Rustil: Eternal Labyrinth Castle $18.99 950 71% 29k $541k (exactly $541,215) KTMG LLC.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.