Do I ship it?

GamesSpectacle fighterSpectacle fighter + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Sports

Of 22 developers who shipped a Sports Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 39 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 70% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 39 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.7k → $3.0k → $359 → $1.3k → $6.2k → $599 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 5% $38k (exactly $37,775)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 77
Announced 39
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter, Sports; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvP, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime, Cartoony
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 538 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $37k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fight Crab older $19.99 747 94% 22k $448k (exactly $447,976) Calappa Games
BEYBLADE X XONE $49.99 162 79% 4.9k $243k (exactly $242,951) 株式会社グルーブボックスジャパン
FootLOL: Epic Soccer League older $9.99 680 82% 20k $204k (exactly $203,796) HeroCraft
BEYBLADE X EVOBATTLE $49.99 112 81% 3.4k $168k (exactly $167,966) 株式会社グルーブボックスジャパン
RetroMania Wrestling older $19.99 243 80% 7.3k $146k (exactly $145,727) Retrosoft Studios
Tactic Boxing older $9.99 416 77% 12k $125k (exactly $124,675) Stately Eagle Games
Toasterball older $9.99 324 96% 9.7k $97k (exactly $97,103) Les Crafteurs
Let's take a bath with Purin 2 older $17.99 133 83% 4.0k $72k (exactly $71,780) Parabolica Games
Action Arcade Wrestling older $14.99 130 75% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,461) VICO Game Studio
Fight Crab 2 · EA older $14.99 128 92% 3.8k $58k (exactly $57,562) Calappa Games
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
DriveCrazy $10.99 73 94% 2.2k $24k (exactly $24,068) TubezGames
Hit It Back $12.99 16 93% 480 $6.2k (exactly $6,235) Sue The Real
Hololive Fantasy Battle $13.00 11 90% 330 $4.3k (exactly $4,290) G-Blossom
MechaCap Arena $7.99 11 90% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Paraflux Games
Nice To Yeet You · EA $5.99 13 100% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) Empty Bottle
MEMOLOGY: War of Memes $0.99 52 76% 1.6k $1.5k (exactly $1,544) Piece Of Voxel, Gamesforfarm, hannibaln… (Piece Of Voxel, Gamesforfarm, hannibalnotdead)
Road To Champion: Boxing Simulator · EA $10.99 4 25% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) Gunersoft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.