Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Space

Of 68 developers who shipped a Space Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 109 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×301 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 109 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 109 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 68
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.8k → $116k → $3.1k → $5.0k → $2.2k → $1.2k → $1.2k (still earning) → $22k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 68
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,740)
Top 5% $189k (exactly $188,874)
Developers, 2 yr 68
Released games 181
Announced 109
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 10,879 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 109 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader older $49.99 33,701 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,541,390) Owlcat Games
STAR WARS™ Knights of the Old Republic™ II - The Sith Lords™ older $9.99 22,357 93% 671k $6.7M (exactly $6,700,393) Obsidian Entertainment, Aspyr (Mac, Lin… (Obsidian Entertainment, Aspyr (Mac, Linux, & Windows Update))
Warhammer 40,000: Battlesector older $39.99 5,064 88% 152k $6.1M (exactly $6,075,281) Slitherine Ltd.
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Colony Ship: A Post-Earth Role Playing Game older $39.99 4,087 87% 123k $4.9M (exactly $4,903,174) Iron Tower Studio
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
Shadow Empire older $39.99 1,431 82% 43k $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) VR Designs
Star Traders: Frontiers older $14.99 3,672 83% 110k $1.7M (exactly $1,651,298) Trese Brothers
Stellar Tactics $24.99 1,666 77% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) Don Wilkins
Deep Sky Derelicts older $19.99 1,985 73% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,190,404) Snowhound Games
Sector Unknown $24.99 373 80% 11k $280k (exactly $279,638) Creative Storm Entertainment
Enter the Chronosphere · EA $14.99 420 94% 13k $189k (exactly $188,874) Effort Star
Starless Abyss $19.99 296 83% 8.9k $178k (exactly $177,511) Konafa Games
Chaos Front $19.99 252 59% 7.6k $151k (exactly $151,124) Han Zhiyu
Beyond Galaxyland $14.99 314 85% 9.4k $141k (exactly $141,206) Sam Enright
Clonizer $14.99 146 82% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Juicy Plume
STARBITES $49.99 42 64% 1.3k $63k (exactly $62,987) IKINAGAMES
Emperor of the Fading Suns Enhanced $9.99 174 95% 5.2k $52k (exactly $52,148) Holistic Design, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.