Do I ship it?

GamesSurvival HorrorSurvival Horror + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Survival Horror?

Survival Horror + Simulation

Of 342 developers who shipped a Simulation Survival Horror in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 468 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×470 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 468 games are announced against 209 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 468 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival Horror + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 342
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $2.4k → $4.0k → $1.5k → $2.6k → $2.1k → $1.9k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival Horror + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 342
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,174)
Top 5% $295k (exactly $295,052)
Developers, 2 yr 342
Released games 949
Announced 468
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival Horror
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival Horror, Simulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 137,200 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 179 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 468 games are announced against 209 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival Horror with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair13 devs · median $31k · 14 announced
  2. + DrivingFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Tower DefenseFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 16 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + SnowFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  6. + SportsFair5 devs · median $959 · 3 announced
  7. + Outbreak SimFair22 devs · median $958 · 24 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterFair27 devs · median $449 · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds10 devs · median $64k · 42 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds17 devs · median $52k · 21 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced

All 159 pairs on the Survival Horror page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
Project Zomboid · EA older $24.99 364,830 94% 11M $274M (exactly $273,513,051) The Indie Stone
Sons Of The Forest older $29.99 284,572 88% 8.5M $256M (exactly $256,029,428) Endnight Games Ltd
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
The Long Dark older $19.99 110,264 89% 3.3M $66M (exactly $66,125,321) Hinterland Studio Inc.
Barotrauma older $34.99 61,905 94% 1.9M $65M (exactly $64,981,678) FakeFish, Undertow Games
Green Hell older $24.99 79,392 84% 2.4M $60M (exactly $59,520,182) Creepy Jar
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
Halloween: The Game $39.99 11,868 68% 356k $14M (exactly $14,238,040) IllFonic
ZERO Sievert $19.99 14,378 84% 431k $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487) CABO Studio
VEIN · EA $19.99 11,539 87% 346k $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) Ramjet Studios
Shift At Midnight $9.99 10,147 88% 304k $3.0M (exactly $3,041,056) Bun Muen
Pathologic 3 $34.99 2,528 80% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) Ice-Pick Lodge
Zoochosis $24.99 2,200 60% 66k $1.6M (exactly $1,649,340) Clapperheads
Funnel Runners · EA $14.99 2,941 83% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,322,568) Supernova Studios LLC
DarkSwitch $34.99 714 77% 21k $749k (exactly $749,486) Cyber Temple

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.