Do I ship it?

GamesSpectacle fighterSpectacle fighter + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Simulation

Of 39 developers who shipped a Simulation Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240. 50 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper, while revenue is flat on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 50 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $1.5k → $359 → $1.5k → $599 → $2.1k → $2.6k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $897 (exactly $897)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 5% $459k (exactly $458,816)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 135
Announced 50
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter, Simulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, 3D Fighter, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 2,432 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Your Only Move Is HUSTLE older $4.99 38,703 96% 1.2M $5.8M (exactly $5,793,839) Ivy Sly
Battle Ram older $29.99 2,204 85% 66k $2.0M (exactly $1,982,939) Runic Rise Games
Fight Angel Special Edition older $19.99 1,776 75% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,065,067) Red Fox
Endorphin Vice · EA older $9.99 3,436 56% 103k $1.0M (exactly $1,029,769) Endorphin Studios
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator · EA $24.99 612 81% 18k $459k (exactly $458,816) Contec Games
Project MIKHAIL: A Muv-Luv War Story older $19.99 706 54% 21k $423k (exactly $423,388) aNCHOR Inc., fuzz, Inc.
Tales Of Glory older $10.99 1,042 80% 31k $344k (exactly $343,547) BlackTale Games
The Divine Invasion older $14.99 690 79% 21k $310k (exactly $310,293) Whale Rock Games
Furry Killer older $29.99 241 78% 7.2k $217k (exactly $216,828) Sujikon
Blood Crawler $12.99 279 76% 8.4k $109k (exactly $108,726) c3アート
King of Bones $7.99 316 85% 9.5k $76k (exactly $75,745) Gluten Free Games
Elder Legacy: Survival · EA $9.99 189 62% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,643) Honor Games
Drunkn Bar Fight 2 VR · EA $12.99 64 50% 1.9k $25k (exactly $24,941) Yooperlite
Dynasty Protocol $17.99 36 63% 1.1k $19k (exactly $19,429) Ellipses Studios
Pattaya Simulator $8.99 22 90% 660 $5.9k (exactly $5,933) N-nic Studio
Espectro The Fighters Focus $8.99 15 100% 450 $4.0k (exactly $4,046) Bytteam Game Studio
Spectacular Team: Assemble $7.99 13 100% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) Sengi Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.