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Should I ship a Visual Novel Shop Keeper?
Shop Keeper + Visual Novel
Of 28 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Shop Keeper in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $590k, ×1257 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 56 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $270 (exactly $270) |
|---|---|
| Median | $898 (exactly $898) |
| Top 25% | $52k (exactly $52,448) |
| Top 5% | $597k (exactly $597,301) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 28 |
| Released games | 32 |
| Announced | 56 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 1200% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Shop Keeper
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Shop Keeper, Visual Novel; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, Life Sim, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Cozy
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 9,159 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $270. 56 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Shop Keeper with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorStrong odds
- + HorrorFair
- + Psychological HorrorFair
- + ModernFair
- + StrategyFair
- + LogicFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + NaturePoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
Comparable games
School Days 2026 · $2.7M 
Tavern Talk - A Cozy Visual Novel 2024 · $786k 
inKONBINI: One Store. Many Stories 2026 · $597k 
Rebirth Pub 2026 · $378k 
Immoral-Bathhouse 2026 · $128k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | School Days | $14.99 | 6,023 77% | 181k | $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) | 白雨工作室 | |
| | Tavern Talk - A Cozy Visual Novel | older | $17.99 | 1,456 87% | 44k | $786k (exactly $785,803) | Gentle Troll Entertainment |
| | inKONBINI: One Store. Many Stories | $19.99 | 996 85% | 30k | $597k (exactly $597,301) | Nagai Industries | |
| | Rebirth Pub | $17.99 | 700 92% | 21k | $378k (exactly $377,790) | Seikou Soft. | |
| | Immoral-Bathhouse | $8.99 | 476 80% | 14k | $128k (exactly $128,377) | 奶油貓工作室, バター貓スタジオ | |
 | High Times | $19.99 | 163 90% | 4.9k | $98k (exactly $97,751) | Yangyang Mobile | |
 | Chinese Street Food Legend | $3.99 | 525 98% | 16k | $63k (exactly $62,842) | HoHo Game Studio | |
 | Massage With Benefits | $9.99 | 175 84% | 5.3k | $52k (exactly $52,448) | pasunna | |
 | NOOK FALL: West Town | $13.99 | 54 70% | 1.6k | $23k (exactly $22,664) | NarraTruth Games | |
 | A TAVERN FOR TEA | older | $2.99 | 140 91% | 4.2k | $13k (exactly $12,558) | npckc |
 | Merchants of Rosewall | $19.99 | 19 63% | 570 | $11k (exactly $11,394) | Big Blue Sky Games | |
 | Whispering Ledger | · EA | $11.99 | 28 100% | 840 | $10k (exactly $10,072) | WispDev |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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