Do I ship it?

GamesShop KeeperShop Keeper + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Shop Keeper?

Shop Keeper + Nature

Of 32 developers who shipped a Nature Shop Keeper in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $31k, ×66 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1463 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 59 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 65.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 59 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shop Keeper + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $42k → $27k (still earning) → $33k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shop Keeper + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $31k (exactly $31,176)
Top 25% $98k (exactly $98,204)
Top 5% $695k (exactly $695,004)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 37
Announced 59
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 865% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shop Keeper
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Shop Keeper; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Resource Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cute, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 13,088 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $31k, 1 in 4 over $98k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 59 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shop Keeper with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds101 devs · median $13k · 122 announced
  2. + HorrorFair32 devs · median $5.1k · 55 announced
  3. + Psychological HorrorFair26 devs · median $5.1k · 44 announced
  4. + ModernFair27 devs · median $3.2k · 28 announced
  5. + StrategyFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  6. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.5k · 27 announced
  7. + IncrementalFair56 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  9. + BuildingPoor odds140 devs · median $16k · 209 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds44 devs · median $16k · 96 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds40 devs · median $13k · 96 announced
  12. + CollectathonPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 75 announced

All 48 pairs on the Shop Keeper page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tiny Bookshop $19.99 6,967 96% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,178,110) neoludic games
Leafy Corner $9.99 2,319 96% 70k $695k (exactly $695,004) Fireline Games
Chop Chop Inc. $12.99 1,258 90% 38k $490k (exactly $490,243) NullRef Entertainment
Above the Snow $24.99 383 75% 11k $287k (exactly $287,135) Above the Desk
Budgie's Bug Shop $5.99 1,016 96% 30k $183k (exactly $182,575) Moon Lagoon
Sugardew Island - Your cozy farm shop $16.99 291 76% 8.7k $148k (exactly $148,323) rokaplay
Campsite Hustle! - Management Simulator · EA $14.99 251 73% 7.5k $113k (exactly $112,875) Red Shore Games
Ranch Farm and Store Simulator $12.99 252 84% 7.6k $98k (exactly $98,204) Bewolba Studios
Bug & Seek older $14.99 203 90% 6.1k $91k (exactly $91,289) So Peculiar
Island Market Simulator $12.99 171 76% 5.1k $67k (exactly $66,639) Zentium Studio
Piece by Piece $11.99 180 91% 5.4k $65k (exactly $64,746) Gamkat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.