Do I ship it?

Games › Trading › Trading + Shop Keeper

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Shop Keeper?

Trading + Shop Keeper

Of 115 developers who shipped a Trading Shop Keeper in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 206 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×25 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×3778 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 206 games are announced against 99 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 206 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Shop Keeper
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 115
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $217k → $135k → $9.4k → $16k (still earning) → $4.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading + Shop Keeper: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 115
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Median $12k (exactly $11,988)
Top 25% $73k (exactly $73,019)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,794,753)
Developers, 2 yr 115
Released games 139
Announced 206
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 450% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Shop Keeper
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Trading, Shop Keeper; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Economy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 100,370 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $73k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 5 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 206 games are announced against 99 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

TCG Card Shop Simulator 2026 · $28M Retro Rewind - Video Store Simulator 2026 · $6.0M Tiny Bookshop 2025 · $4.2M Storage Hunter Simulator 2025 · $2.9M King of Retail 2022 · $2.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Retro Rewind - Video Store Simulator $19.90 10,118 95% 304k $6.0M (exactly $6,040,446) Blood Pact Studios
Tiny Bookshop $19.99 6,967 96% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,178,110) neoludic games
Storage Hunter Simulator $24.99 3,866 78% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,898,340) Raccoons Studio
King of Retail older $25.99 2,982 88% 89k $2.3M (exactly $2,325,065) Freaking Games
BidKing $2.99 22,238 33% 667k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749) MindSurge Network & Games
Dealer's Life 2 older $14.99 3,994 85% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,796,102) Abyte Entertainment
Roadside Research · EA $14.99 3,991 85% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,794,753) Cybernetic Walrus
Cat Cafe Manager older $19.99 2,174 87% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,303,748) Roost Games
No Umbrellas Allowed older $19.99 1,394 80% 42k $836k (exactly $835,982) Hoochoo Game Studios
Megastore Simulator · EA $13.99 1,968 93% 59k $826k (exactly $825,970) Yolo Games Studio
Bookshop Simulator $15.99 1,496 92% 45k $718k (exactly $717,631) Blep Games
The Last Gas Station $13.99 1,250 87% 38k $525k (exactly $524,625) Alawar
Clothing Store Simulator $12.99 1,119 89% 34k $436k (exactly $436,074) Kiki Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.