Do I ship it?

GamesTabletopTabletop + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Tabletop game?

Tabletop + Sci-fi

Of 43 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 75 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 75 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper, while revenue is up 185% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 185% on the market, 75 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tabletop + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $21k → $719 → $90 → $1.8k → $179 (still earning) → $746 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tabletop + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,794)
Top 5% $48k (exactly $48,279)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 151
Announced 75
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 185% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Tabletop; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 3,217 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $48k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 75 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tabletop with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BuildingFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  2. + CRPGFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  3. + RTSFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  4. + MilitaryFair30 devs · median $1.4k · 20 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  6. + DragonsFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + MahjongFair26 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  8. + WargameFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  9. + SpaceFair29 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  10. + CapitalismFair35 devs · median $807 · 33 announced
  11. + HorrorFair50 devs · median $776 · 51 announced
  12. + Local Co-OpFair31 devs · median $748 · 33 announced

All 155 pairs on the Tabletop page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus older $29.99 11,279 91% 338k $10M (exactly $10,147,716) Bulwark Studios
Citizen Sleeper older $19.99 8,271 92% 248k $5.0M (exactly $4,960,119) Jump Over The Age
Terraforming Mars older $19.99 5,194 71% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) Artefacts Studio
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Scythe: Digital Edition older $19.99 3,164 89% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,897,451) The Knights of Unity
Citizen Sleeper 2: Starward Vector $24.99 2,358 91% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,767,793) Jump Over The Age
Moonbreaker older $29.99 1,289 84% 39k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,713) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Space Hulk (Classic) older $19.99 1,576 71% 47k $945k (exactly $945,127) Full Control Studios
Popup Dungeon older $24.99 603 79% 18k $452k (exactly $452,069) Triple.B.Titles
Ascension: Deckbuilding Game older $9.99 1,435 88% 43k $430k (exactly $430,070) Playdek, Inc.
Factory Planner · EA $7.99 385 70% 12k $92k (exactly $92,284) Lebleby Games
Space Imperia 4X $22.99 70 92% 2.1k $48k (exactly $48,279) Breich Games
Amberspire $24.99 58 86% 1.7k $43k (exactly $43,483) Lunar Division
Eclipse - 2nd Dawn for the Galaxy $12.99 95 57% 2.9k $37k (exactly $37,022) BrettspielWelt GmbH
Vestiges: Fallen Tribes $24.99 36 80% 1.1k $27k (exactly $26,989) WanadevStudio
Burger Bots Inc. $7.99 109 91% 3.3k $26k (exactly $26,127) Normogames
SpaceCorp: 2025-2300AD $9.99 73 83% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Logix Interactive
High Frontier 4 All $19.99 17 17% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Johan Brandt, Stewart Wan, Erik Lund, N… (Johan Brandt, Stewart Wan, Erik Lund, Nicolas Mondino, Theo Sandén, Leonard Wahlund, Alexander Wahrenstedt, Carl Nordholm, Erico Pizarro Gutierrez, Natdanai Puthom, Olivia Bernardsson, Dag Petersen, Sam Abou-Gabal, Pablo Schmidt, Spilios Kehagias, Aphiwit Lekphet, Zongying Liu, Markus Vikmanis, Kamila Kuzmiuk, Edvin Skogsholm Sanne, Janina Carvajal Ibacache, Adam Kallberg, Ricky Truong, Carl Forden, Robin Christopher Öhman Tejre, Malte Gundhus, Mathias Novakovic, Christopher Vedlund, Ivo Öjhage, Benjamin Grissom, Linus Granskog)
King of Tokyo - Richard Garfield $19.99 16 68% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Breakfirst

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.