Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Runner?

Runner + Underground

Only 12 developers shipped an Underground Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ikarus Parkour, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 9 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 9 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $270 → $359
Outcomes for Runner + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 5% $76k (exactly $75,992)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 36
Announced 9
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Runner
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 322 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $75k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ikarus Parkour $12.99 195 81% 5.9k $76k (exactly $75,992) Vanja Aleksić
Zardy's Cave $7.99 84 80% 2.5k $20k (exactly $20,135) Full Trek Media
The Backrooms: Rescue Expedition $9.99 21 33% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) {CRYTIME}
WonderCat Adventures older $3.99 46 76% 1.4k $5.5k (exactly $5,506) Obscure Cloud
MineRalph older $9.99 17 100% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Chop Chop Games
Web or Dead older $6.99 15 100% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) gareththegeek
Dragon Mine older $2.99 20 95% 600 $1.8k (exactly $1,794) Peachy Clouds
RaceWorms $5.49 10 100% 300 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Team Zandt
The shadow of the evil tower older $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) TitaniumCore Game
Medusa older $2.99 13 76% 390 $1.2k (exactly $1,166) radgu8
The Ape Tales: An Epic Adventure Game $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Roker Games Studio
Beat Vortex · EA $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Glory Through Gaming
Mythic Factor: Leaving the Labyrinth $9.36 1 100% 30 $281 (exactly $281) Sean Pearson
BlackHoleMaze $8.99 1 0% 30 $270 (exactly $270) PENGHAO
광기의 함정(The Madness Trap Trek) $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) IlShim United
Miner to Die $0.99 2 100% 60 $59 (exactly $59) Mercimek Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.