Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Runner?

Runner + Thriller

Only 19 developers shipped a Thriller Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Backrooms: Rescue Expedition, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 11 developers shipped in the last year and 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $119 → $479 → $359 → $897
Outcomes for Runner + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,209)
Top 5% $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 51
Announced 13
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Runner; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action-Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cinematic, Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 59% positive over 146 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $6.2k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Aerial_Knight's Never Yield older $4.99 102 79% 3.1k $15k (exactly $15,269) Aerial_Knight
TAURONOS older $4.99 48 87% 1.4k $7.2k (exactly $7,186) cavalie_ro, S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L.
The Backrooms: Rescue Expedition $9.99 21 33% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) {CRYTIME}
MeiQi 2020 · EA older $18.99 11 45% 330 $6.3k (exactly $6,267) QZQ Studio
Misty Onsen $5.99 32 56% 960 $5.8k (exactly $5,750) 神 SHEN
Alice | 愛莉澄 older $4.99 36 72% 1.1k $5.4k (exactly $5,389) 838s Maniacs
Jenny Love You $4.99 23 69% 690 $3.4k (exactly $3,443) Phantom Pixel
Shipwreck Escape older $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Raccoons Studio
永夜镇EternalNightTown $8.99 11 54% 330 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) 阁楼实验室
Survive the Jurassic older $5.99 15 13% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) John tex
Corridor Exit 8 $1.99 37 64% 1.1k $2.2k (exactly $2,209) Mynoki Games
Mr HappyFunFace $2.99 10 90% 300 $897 (exactly $897) Big Red Eight
Come To An End $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) SoloRiotz
Ghost VCD $2.99 5 60% 150 $449 (exactly $449) Qing Ping
The Night of Escape $3.99 3 0% 90 $359 (exactly $359) LiTang
Only for Gamers $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Merhaba Yazılım

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.