Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Runner?

Runner + Supernatural

Of 20 developers who shipped a Supernatural Runner in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 9 developers shipped in the last year and 19 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 19 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $2.7k → $538 → $418 → $479 → $4.5k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Runner + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $298 (exactly $298)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,967)
Top 5% $20k (exactly $20,135)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 43
Announced 19
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Runner; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Survival Horror, Action
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Linear, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 176 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $20k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phantom Abyss older $19.99 1,962 81% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,176,611) Team WIBY
Zardy's Cave $7.99 84 80% 2.5k $20k (exactly $20,135) Full Trek Media
Misty Onsen $5.99 32 56% 960 $5.8k (exactly $5,750) 神 SHEN
Campfire: Night One $14.99 12 91% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Prisca, Mezey Krisztián
Umbral older $9.99 18 83% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Walter O. M. Junior
Hell Runner $14.99 10 100% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Moonlight Studio
Spooky Mahjong older $4.99 25 76% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) Triakola Studios
永夜镇EternalNightTown $8.99 11 54% 330 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) 阁楼实验室
Survive the Jurassic older $5.99 15 13% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) John tex
Soulslinger older $2.99 23 91% 690 $2.1k (exactly $2,063) Nether Lamp
独特的友谊 - Special Friendship $2.99 6 66% 180 $538 (exactly $538) U0U0X幽灵
Hot Pig Jump! $3.99 4 100% 120 $479 (exactly $479) DekkaRuby Games
Ghost VCD $2.99 5 60% 150 $449 (exactly $449) Qing Ping
漫游后室 Roaming Backrooms $1.99 7 71% 210 $418 (exactly $418) 搞机居委会
After The Afterlife $1.99 5 80% 150 $298 (exactly $298) BugBit Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.