Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Runner?

Runner + Space

Of 43 developers who shipped a Space Runner in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $60 in the last 2 years and $120 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 26 developers shipped in the last year and 42 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 42 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $358 → $30 → $299 → $239 → $30 → $148 → $60 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Runner + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $60 (exactly $60)
Top 25% $597 (exactly $597)
Top 5% $27k (exactly $26,632)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 165
Announced 42
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Runner; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Platformer, Action, 3D Platformer
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,410 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $60, 1 in 4 over $590, 1 in 20 over $26k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bionic Bay $19.99 750 84% 23k $450k (exactly $449,775) Psychoflow Studio, Mureena Oy
Orbt XL older $0.99 3,230 96% 97k $96k (exactly $95,931) Adamvision Studios
JumpJet Rex older $9.99 248 91% 7.4k $74k (exactly $74,326) TreeFortress Games
Retrowave 2 $4.99 449 88% 13k $67k (exactly $67,215) RewindApp
Joggernauts older $14.99 88 89% 2.6k $40k (exactly $39,574) Space Mace
Only Up! older $4.99 198 11% 5.9k $30k (exactly $29,641) MoreMoto Games
This Is No Cave $6.99 127 96% 3.8k $27k (exactly $26,632) monome.studio
Infinity Runner older $6.99 93 72% 2.8k $20k (exactly $19,502) Wales Interactive
SINGULARIUM older $9.99 41 75% 1.2k $12k (exactly $12,288) NivMiz
Deep Space Dash older $1.99 154 43% 4.6k $9.2k (exactly $9,194) Delusional Games
TIRELESS: Prepare For The Adrenaline $4.99 32 84% 960 $4.8k (exactly $4,790) naro
Gelatina is Hungry $14.99 8 100% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Under Castle
Delivery Up Together $5.99 13 69% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) Artem Breineng
Rolling Macho:Tumbling to Earth $3.99 16 81% 480 $1.9k (exactly $1,915) SERIALGAMES Inc.
Star Rabbits $6.99 7 100% 210 $1.5k (exactly $1,468) ZeroToTenB
Iluminatus Bizarre Ascent $5.99 6 100% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) EIS Games, Iluminatus
Astral Tracks $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) LAB132

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.